Thursday, 18th February 2021
The number of horses taking up assignments in the two big Saturday handicaps – 9 in the Grand National Trial at Haydock and 12 in the Swinley Chase at Ascot – is slightly disappointing….
But the ground is desperate at both tracks and nobody who has a horse with spring targets in mind wants to leave the season behind in the mud….
We will work with what we have. And – numbers not withstanding – it promises to be a decent weekend of racing for handicap fans….
Not least because the Betfair Hurdle has been rescheduled for Sunday at Newbury. And you can be sure of a big field in that one….
The lineup will be slightly different than would have been the case last Saturday….
Last week’s favourite Metier has been scratched because the race is now too close to his primary target – the Supreme. A couple of horses have been added to the mix – among them Philip Hobbs’ Gumball Nicky Henderson’s Fred….
Whatever the lineup – the field-splitting stats and angles we looked at last week still hold true. And they are worth a revisit….
The week’s delay gives me time and space to come at the race from another angle still – yard trends….
Several yards with horses entered for Sunday’s race have a strong track record in targeting this event effectively….
The details appear in the table below….
The numbers speak – to a large extent – for themselves….
Nigel Twiston-Davies (his place strike rate of 50% is excellent) and Gary Moore have won three editions apiece – with placers to boot. Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have won two apiece….
Philip Hobbs and David Pipe have solid records without managing to find a winner….
These figures relate to editions of the race run over the last 17 years. So, how do things look if we focus solely on more recent renewals – just the last seven for instance?
The table below tells the recent story….
…. and the advantage to stripping away the most historic data is immediately evident….
Straight away we can see without any doubt whatsoever exactly who the dominant recent forces in the race have been….
Nigel Twiston-Davies has been exceptionally effective over the last few years – producing 3 winners and 2 placers from his 8 representatives….
Paul Nicholls is one winner a four placers from 12. And David Pipe’s figures still look solid enough – with three placers from seven runners….
On the other hand, the figures of Nicky Henderson, Gary Moore, Jonjo O’Neill and Philip Hobbs deteriorate markedly. Their ‘form’ and ‘effectiveness’ in the race is clearly that bit more dated – and possibly that bit less relevant….
Of course, you can’t take any number in racing as a gospel truth. Races are run on the track – not on paper. And you can’t work out race outcomes on a calculator….
On top of that, all race participants – equine and human – are prone to rediscover winning form at any given time (often when you least expect it). The past does not always instruct the future….
But with those figures to hand it would be a foolish man who summarily dismissed the prospects of this season’s Twiston-Davies entry – Guard Your Dreams….
As a 5yo with just 4 hurdle starts to his name this son of Fame And Glory has certainly got the profile of a typical Betfair Hurdle winner….
And he arrives at Newbury on the back of a win at Sandown in January. That got him up the rankings to the tune of 7lb and he’s been off the track since. You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to wonder whether this race has been the plan all along….
Especially as Nigel Twiston Davies has very much been the man with several plans for this race over the last few editions….
Splash Of Ginge (2014)…. Ballyandy (2017)…. and AI Dancer (2019)…. all read the script, learnt their lines, and did the business on the big day. Flying Angel (2016) and Sir Valentine (2020) were not so very far away from emulating….
The last two named of those winners for the yard were ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies – who is already down to ride Guard Your Dreams on Sunday….
At this morning’s 14s, you’d have to say the market might just be missing a trick….
Not that I’m putting the horse up as a bet, you understand. At this stage I’m just making simple observations based on where my digging has led me….
This race-betting game is just that – a game. It’s supposed to be fun. Sometimes we forget that. I know I do….
Here are some words of wisdom from one of the great undiscovered modern British philosophers – trainer David Bridgwater….
He’s talking about racing as a whole. But his words might just as easily apply to our game – betting….
‘One day people will realise it doesn’t matter anyway. When we’re lying on our deathbed gasping for air we’ll be thinking, ‘What the f*** was all that about?’ A lot of people say, ‘Oh, I’ve always wanted to do this and I’ve always wanted to do that.’ That’s not me. I just want to get out of bed in the morning and breathe.’
A little perspective – we all need it from time to time. And nobody gets the job done quite like David. Top man. If I had a horse, that’s who I’d send it to….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the weekend action. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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