Friday, 19th February 2021
Not too many trainers are in better form than Venetia Williams heading into the weekend….
She’s won 15 races since the turn of the year and it’s her handicap chasers that have been doing the best of the business – producing 12 of the wins from 52 qualifying runs @ 23.1%....
An additional 16 handicap chaser hit the frame in those 52 races – giving that specific group of horses a total place strike rate of 53.8% over the period....
You wouldn’t have made money backing them all. That much is true….
But you don’t need to back them all. If or when you know a yard – or a group of horses within a yard – is going well, you can pick your moments….
With the Grand National Trial (2.40) being run at Haydock tomorrow and the Swinley Chase (2.25) taking place down at Ascot….
…. and with both those big handicap chase events set to be run on the type of ground Venetia’s horses habitually thrive on….
…. Saturday might just be one of those moments….
Down at Ascot I like the chances of her YALLTARI at the general 10s….
The 10yo has missed quite a bit of racing in the last couple of years – with some lengthy absences from the track….
That’s always a worry with a chaser but he’s been seen three times this term. That’s his longest uninterrupted spell of racing for a while and it suggests Venetia Williams has a horse to work with once again….
He pulled up on his first run for 256 days at Bangor and ran down the field in the Welsh Grand National trial at Chepstow….
Fair enough. Not much to cling to in either of those two runs. But last time at tomorrow’s track he shaped much more like it and is clearly fitter than he was earlier in the season. He looked more like a horse running into form and back at the same venue tomorrow he can go on again….
Running off a mark of 135 tomorrow, he’s 12lb below his peak chasing mark and 2lb lower than his last winning mark. And with 5lb claimer Hugh Nugent booked to ride (he won on the horse over hurdles) the horse looks set-up to run big….
Up at Haydock in the Grand National Trial, I’m siding with Venetia’s ACHILLE. He’s of interest at 9s….
He’s another horse whose had his problems and missed plenty of racing. But it didn’t faze him at Warwick where he got beaten just a half-a-length by Notachance in last month’s Classic Chase – his first run for 427 days and just his second run in more than 600….
He’s an 11yo now – but that Warwick run was his best to date on the RPR scale. He retains a progressive profile despite his age and if he’s fitter for the competitive run then he can go on again from a mark of just 138. He won’t mind the ground either….
In case you missed it….It’s been a busy week on ATC…. On Monday – I showed you exactly what a Grand National winner generally looks like before it goes to post – ahead of the release of the weights for this season’s renewal…. On Tuesday – I identified two jockeys who represent a real advantage in Cheltenham handicaps. One was Davy Russell. He won’t be riding at the meeting now. So, the second jockey is all the more interesting…. On Wednesday – I highlighted an off-the-radar handicap chaser who is dangerously well handicapped and will get his ground in the weeks ahead…. On Thursday – I took advantage of the week’s delay in the running of the Betfair Hurdle and approached the race from a revealing angle…. Next week – we go again. Stay tuned…. |
A maximum field of 24 goes to post for the rescheduled Betfair Hurdle (3.35) at Newbury on Sunday….
Just two of those runners are priced up in single figures – Dan Skelton’s Cadzand and Jonjo O’Neill’s Soaring Glory. The market opinion is that any other outcome would be something of a shock….
No problem. I like shocks. I actively seek them out. My betting strategy depends on them….
And the truth is that in races like this – highly competitive and with many younger runners likely to be well ahead of the handicapper at this stage of their respective careers – shocks are par for the course….
In a race of this nature I tend to go one of two ways. I find one at a proper each-way price or I go two-against-the-field….
For this race I’m taking the latter option and backing WILD MAX at 20s & 18s and ANNUAL INVICTUS at 14s….
Thyme Whyte looks like the number one Nicholls horse with Harry Cobden aboard. But I’m not so sure. Wild Max is further up the weights and it makes sense to take 7lb off him with Angus Cheleda – who is good value for that claim and six wins from 15 for Nicholls this term….
The 6yo is up to 147 now – up a stone for the season so far. But he won comfortably enough last time at Doncaster and there could still be plenty more to come from this improving hurdler who is reported to be in seriously good order at home. I think he’s got a big chance….
Chris Gordon’s Annual Invictus has won three times this term – without being asked too many questions – and is still rated just 138. He’s got the right kind of profile for the race and is probably under the radar a little because his yard is not one of the big gun operations….
That didn’t stop Gordon from sending out old-stager Remiluc – smashing the trends in the process – to place in this race in 2018 and 2020. This year he might have a proper Betfair Hurdle horse on his hand….
Jamie Moore was down to ride this one in the early part of last week – before Johnson was booked up. It’s an interesting swich. Johnson isn’t a serial rider for Gordon – but he does have a 23% strike rate at Newbury across the last 5-years and he’s gone very well on quite a few in this race in the past….
Perhaps Chris Gordon has done his homework? At the price, I’m prepared to bet on it….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Swinley Chase (2.25 @ Ascot).
In the Grand National Trial (2.40 @ Haydock).
In the Betfair Hurdle (Sunday 3.35 @ Newbury).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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