Tuesday, 23rd February 2021
You can’t know everything in racing….
No matter how hard you work, how much time you put in, or how creative you are with your intelligence gathering – there will always be factors hidden from view and issues that remain a mystery….
There will always be things you are unaware of – because you don’t have insider access to the information….
There will always be things you don’t know or understand because you lack the necessary expertise or experience….
And there will always be things that nobody knows or understands – because horses are unpredictable and prone to problems and issues that grow out of nowhere when you least expect them….
That’s the imperfect universe the racing punter operates in – where the jigsaw always has pieces missing….
Lord Du Mesnil – winner of Saturday’s Grand National Trial – presents a timely illustration….
Backers of Richard Hobson’s 8yo needed to take something on faith. The horse hadn’t been straightforward of late….
He’d been on the up heading into this season – recording Racing Post ratings of 150+ in each of his final four chase assignments last term. Staying trips on proper winter ground had been the making of him….
After two wins (and a 2nd in the Grand National Trial) at Haydock his season concluded at Cheltenham where he’d found one too good in the National Hunt Challenge Cup….
The clues were there for Saturday’s race – particularly previous form produced on the flat Lancashire left-hander where deep ground really does mean DEEP….
But there was a problem. The 8yo hadn’t been ‘at it’ in his three runs this term. He’d been off the boil….
He underwhelmed at Kelso on his seasonal return. Maybe that performance could be put down to ring rust and an inadequate trip….
And perhaps a short trip was the reason for a second sub-par performance over the Grand National fences in the Grand Sefton at Aintree in December….
Perhaps both those runs could be ignored – or at least forgiven – because the horse was being primed specifically for a tilt at the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow….
He was sent off at 20s for that – a big price for a horse with a stamina-heavy profile, a preference for deep ground and a prominent racing style favoured at a track where it is difficult to make up ground late on….
Maybe the 45-length defeat in the Sefton turned the market cold. Whatever it was, trainer Richard Hobson was having none of it….
On race day he announced his horse was in great order and no 20s shot. Apparently, the market was wrong….
But it didn’t pan out that way. The horse got round and finished 9th of 18 runners – but he was beaten soundly enough and ran a full stone below his best….
It isn’t only punters that horses make monkeys out of. The trainer – supposedly positioned to know the horse better than anyone – can also be made to look like a prize baboon….
Sometimes when horses run below expectation there’s no obvious explanation for it….
In such instances, trainers might feel the horse’s legs, or give him a scope, or take blood. They might run him through the full range of tests, investigations, and procedures that modern veterinarian science has to offer….
And it will all be to no avail because the horse simply did what horses do and got out of bed on the wrong side….
But there was an explanation for Lord Du Mesnil’s Chepstow run. He’d overheated. Not in the race – but afterwards. He’d been on the boil all along….
It took Hobson and his team a while. But tests eventually confirmed that the horse was deficient in magnesium and potassium….
Nobody could know that ahead of Chepstow – certainly not punters. And nobody could know ahead of Haydock on Saturday whether or not the prescribed treatment – a course of injections – would restore the horse to fitness and form….
It was something else that had to be taken on faith. Hobson didn’t know. He said as much last week. So what chance punters had – assuming they were even aware of the situation – I don’t know….
It’s the imperfect universe I was talking about earlier – the jigsaw with many missing pieces….
Given Lord Du Mesnil’s performance on Saturday – he was back to and beyond his previous best – I’m thinking about sourcing magnesium and potassium jabs myself….
If they perk me up the same way they did him, a call-up for British Lions duty in South Africa this summer might still be a possibility….
The horse produced a proper performance. Okay, the race time wasn’t anything to shout about if you want to be picky. But he made almost every yard, jumped sweetly in the main, and was dogged in the late stages when it really mattered….
Those battling qualities are what you want to see when you back a horse (not that I did). And a horse that repels multiple challengers – like he did – is one that is firing on all cylinders – for sure. There was no fluke. The race didn’t fall apart….
After taking them along for two circuits, the 8yo first saw off the challenge of The Two Amigos in the straight – no mean feat given that one had run a cracker to finish 2nd in the Welsh Grand National and was said to be in ‘serious form’ ahead of Saturday’s race….
Then he bit down on the gumshield and ground it out to fend off the late-challenging and similarly in-form Achille in the final furlong – mastering that one just yards from the post….
It was a performance full of heart delivered by a gritty horse. If you read between the lines, kept the faith, and backed the horse, then well done to you….
Me? I simply didn’t know enough about the potential effectiveness of the magnesium and potassium jabs to have sufficient confidence Lord Du Mesnil would bounce back and replicate last season’s Haydock form….
I know more about that issue now though. I know that those jabs can work the magic. And that’s the thing about this imperfect universe that is racing….
Some things you don’t know today, you can learn tomorrow. You become a more knowledgeable punter through the furnace of experience. Ignorance – in some areas at least – doesn’t need to be a permanent state….
If we pay attention, we are always moving forwards….
Straight after Lord Du Mesnil’s win, plenty of firms cut him for the Grand National in April – from 50s to 33s and 25s. It was the Grand National Trial after all – and he has gone up 5lbs for the win and will be that much well in at Aintree….
But I don’t much fancy him for the race. He travels nicely, races prominently and jumps well. But he appears dependent on more desperate ground than is likely in April….
He’s achieved little when asked to run on ground any better than outright soft – or outside of midwinter months….
If it were to rain heavily between now and April 10th – then yes he’s one for the shortlist. But with the sun shining and spring in the air, I won’t be rushing to back him ante-post….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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