Wednesday, 24th February 2021
I wonder if Nigel Twiston-Davies is thinking County Hurdle or Coral Cup for Guard Your Dreams after Sunday’s run in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury….
The 5yo has certainly given his trainer something to think about over the next couple of weeks. He finished 6th of the 23 runners – beaten just 7-lengths at the post….
Those figures act as a reasonable measure – of sorts. They tell you that – all things taken together with the race assessed as a whole – the horse produced a competitive-enough performance….
But what the figures don’t do is provide the context within which that performance was produced….
They don’t tell you exactly how the run developed or why it panned out as it did – and that’s equally important when it comes to figuring out and assessing individual horses….
Deep into the late stages of Sunday’s race, Guard Your Dreams looked a hell of a long way short of getting as close to the winner as he did….
Watch the race again and note where Guard Your Dreams is as the field turns into the home straight and approaches the third last hurdle….
He is right out the back with just one horse behind him. Sam Twiston-Davies (maroon silks with yellow diamonds on the sleeves) is urging his mount along. The race looks to have got away from him. He must be at least 20-lengths behind the race leader at that point….
Guard Your Dreams gets over the third last hurdle nicely enough. But fast forward to the second last obstacle – and see how he goes over that one….
Not so good. His work is a little ponderous. He certainly doesn’t come out of the back side of that hurdle in anything like full flow. Momentum is lost. The horse needs to get going all over again….
To his credit, he does. And Sam Twiston-Davies deserves a little credit here too. He doesn’t panic in the saddle. He doesn’t get after the horse too aggressively. He’s doesn’t rag it….
Instead he urges, cajoles, and encourages – but he’s relatively soft-handed in the way he goes about it. He doesn’t demand. He doesn’t insist. Instead he gives the horse time to rediscover his own rhythm….
At the last hurdle there are still 11 horses ahead of Guard Your Dreams and Sam Twiston-Davies. Once again, the horse’s business at the obstacle isn’t what you’d hope for….
The horse gives the impression of thinking just a little too much about what he’s doing ahead of take-off. He’s fiddling rather than winging. Stuttering rather than soaring. Once again, a little momentum is conceded in the laboured process….
But the horse gets over the obstacle. And once he does, watch him take off. For sure, some of the horses he’s overtaking are dropping back through the field. Their respective races are over at this point. He isn’t overhauling horses that are still in the heat of battle and in with a shout….
But he isn’t stopping as they are. That’s the point. He keeps working. And he keeps on really well – as well as anything else in the field. This from an unpromising position turning in for home – and despite not helping himself with some less than foot-perfect hurdling in the stretch where he made most progress….
For sure, he’s plenty well beaten by a smart-looking winner at the end. And I’m not trying to say he was an unlucky loser or that things might have panned out better if something had happened just a little differently….
What I am saying is that he did exceptionally well to finish where he did when you consider where he was until deep into the race….
And he was where he was until that point because it all happened way too quickly for him. Not because Sam Twiston Davies purposefully held him up in preparation for a telling late surge….
There was nowhere else other than out back that he could be early doors – because he was off his feet….
The freewheeling For Pleasure was out of the blocks very quickly at the start and he took the field along at a red-hot pace – and for a long way too. Look at how strung out the field is when the leader takes off to go over just the second hurdle….
You could make the case that the race was just too hot in terms of quality for Guard Your Dreams. I would get where you’re coming from….
He was up 7lbs for his win the time before. He was facing better quality opposition than he’d faced in his previous assignments. And the ground at Newbury was nowhere near as deep as the ground had been at Sandown….
But I’d disagree with that ‘not good enough’ assessment. The horse didn’t fade. Instead, he got stronger as the race went on. He was never nearer than he was at the finish….
And the bottom line is that – no matter how the race panned out from start to finish – he improved again. On the Racing Post rating scale at least….
He was originally awarded 131 for his Sandown win. That was subsequently revised to 134. And he was awarded 140 for Sunday’s run….
Another way of putting all that – perhaps more instructively – is to say this: only the winner Soaring Glory improved as much between his last race and Sunday’s race….
The ground might not have been the same as it was at Sandown. But it didn’t seem to be the issue. Not to me. I wouldn’t argue that better ground retarded Guard Your Dream’s performance. Quite the opposite….
For me, the trip was the issue. If not the trip then the trip on the Newbury track. And that distinction probably sums-up Nigel Twiston-Davies’s current conundrum….
Would Guard Your Dreams be seen to better effect still over 5f further in the Coral Cup?
Or would the 2m trip in the County Hurdle be the right one for the horse given that 2-miles on Cheltenham’s New course is a stiffer test than the 2m hurdle trip at Newbury presents?
I don’t know. Not for sure But what I can tell you is that Guard Your Dreams is a brother to Jonjo O’Neill’s Cary’s Commodity – a young and lightly-raced hurdler who is already a two-time winner over 2m4f with performances worth 133 and 135….
Plenty more would be required for a Coral Cup success. But I’d be positive about that improvement being found. Guard Your Dreams has already exceeded that level over 2-miles. And his pedigree encourages the view that the longer trip would suit and quite likely improve him again….
Whatever, it’s all speculation. The horse might not even go to Cheltenham at all. The key thing at this stage is that the horse won’t be going too far up the rankings (if at all) for a 7-length defeat….
As punters we were given a freebie in Sunday’s race. We got to learn something important and useful about Guard Your Dreams – without his official mark suffering for the lesson….
What we learnt is this: he’s a decent horse and in the right circumstances and conditions he is more than capable of winning a big handicap pot off his current mark of 135….
Oh – and his hurdling can be improved. Markedly. And that will help him make the leap required to become a 140/150 horse….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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