Thursday, 25th February 2021
Saturday’s Eider Chase at Newcastle has always been a stamina-sapping slog….
In the last seven renewals, 32 horses were pulled-up – unable to go on or with nothing to gain by finishing remotely. Not many races boast that record….
The race also has its share of fallers and unseats – some the product of exhausted horses unable to summon the strength to get over the obstacle….
The Eider is not always an edifying sight. And it doesn’t get easier. This year the start has been moved back 154 yards so that another fence can be added. Race planners weren’t happy with the field jumping the old first fence whilst approaching a bend….
If your mission is to isolate horses of interest on Saturday, the race stats won’t help much….
‘All of the last 16 winners had already won over 3-miles or further’ – this is the king stat doing the rounds this week….
The statement is 100% factual. It tells you something. But as a field-splitter, it’s a turkey….
You can take it as read that horses turning out for the Eider will have form at 3m+. You wouldn’t expect a 2m5f horse to turn out. Not unless its trainer’s been hammering the hallucinogens….
The next best stat – found this week on 734 racing-oriented websites – is this: ‘14 of the last 16 winners were aged 10 or younger….’
Make of that what you will. I haven’t done the nitty-gritty counting, but it’s pretty much what I’d expect – something like 80% of the winners from a group that would make up about 80% of the runners….
And you only need look under the bonnet of the last five renewals to see what the age stat abjectly fails to reflect….
In 2019 – 11yo Mysteree placed @ 16s; In 2018 – 13yo Portrait King placed @ 33s; In 2017 – 12yo Harry The Viking placed @ 20s; In 2016 – 11yo Rocking Blues won @ 8s & 11yo Portrait King placed @ 12s; In 2015 – 11yo Summery Justice placed @ 20s….
For sure, only a single winner. But it ain’t like 11yo+ horses can be scratched summarily or written-off as definite also rans. They are frequently competitive….
That’s one of the problems with these kinds of bare race stats. Looks can prove deceiving. Statements are often constructed – without conscious malice on the part of the writer – to read with maximum impact….
But impressing or exciting the reader with a big bold statement that appears to have substance is not always the same thing as providing the meaningful information required by your serious punter….
There’s a conflict of interest at work – between the need to fill space on a website with material that appears to be useful and providing material that has actual utility in a market setting. Too often the need to fill space quickly with something – anything – takes precedence….
And this problem is compounded by the fact that there are hundreds of racing-oriented websites jockeying for position in the marketplace – all competing for eyeballs and each requiring a constant flow of fresh material….
There’s a limit to how much of that genuine material can be produced. And what happens instead is that you often see the exact same information time and again on multiple and seemingly unconnected websites. Race stats are particularly prone to this type of widespread regurgitation….
Sometimes a single writer feverishly posts his race trends here, there, everywhere, and at all points in between. Other times it is the wide-boy serial duplicators at work….
Race trends are easy to lift and rewrite. In a matter of minutes a charlatan with a website can take another man’s work, rejig it, post it online and pass it off as fresh and independently produced material – with no thought as to its actual merit or value….
It’s the racing equivalent of clickbait – quick-bake updates that enable website operators to tick the ‘new content’ box, grab eyeballs, generate likes and shares, encourage subscribers, get comments, drive affiliate deals, sell advertising and all the rest of it….
It’s not for me to pass judgment on all this. I couldn’t care less how or why third-party websites go about things the way they do…..
All I know is this. Meaningless race stat pieces have proliferated online to a huge degree in recent years – driven by the content process and related issues outlined above….
And a lot of punters read those meaningless race stat pieces. More than that – they take notes and take the stats to heart. Ultimately, their bet selections are based on or influenced by the simplified and hopelessly incomplete statistical statements that have been fed to them….
They don’t question. They don’t dig deeper. They don’t verify. Most of the time they don’t even think. They simply believe – seeming to trust in providence and the kindness of strangers. It’s the Lazy Boy syndrome at work….
…. The irrational conviction that you can win more by doing less than the next man….
…. The idea that racing boils down to a bunch of numbers and a few boxes you can tick or uncheck….
…. The belief that out there in the ether there’s some Holy Grail A+B+C+D+E = WINNER formula that serves up automatic profits in all the big handicaps….
You don’t have to think or work or learn or invest any time. That stuff’s for losers, baby….
Better instead to blindly labour under the ridiculous delusion that you’ve discovered a magic blueprint that trumps all hard-won knowledge and experience every time….
Of course, it’s arrant nonsense. A raging garbage fire of idle thinking and crazy dreams….
But I’m not criticizing. I don’t give two hoots what the next man believes or how he chooses to go about his betting business. Good luck to him….
I play my own game and what I’m becoming increasingly more interested in as the months go by is twofold….
One – what proportion of the market is unduly influenced by generic race stats in its betting decisions? Two – is there mileage in opposing that group when the race stats have no merit or meaning?
I can’t know how many people bet under the influence of generic stats. But those stats are so prevalent these days it’s entirely reasonable to assume they regularly succeed in moving significant numbers of punters towards some horses and away from others – on an erroneous basis….
And that’s something that is almost guaranteed to produce a flow of value-betting situations which the contrarian punter can capitalize on…..
The last five editions of the Eider offer a case in point. There were good bets available at big prices for each-way punters prepared to take on the consensus view represented by the generic race stats….
It’s an idea – or an approach – I’ll be giving more thought to going forward….
Now, don’t get me wrong. Race stats do have their place. Most certainly. But that place – as far as I’m concerned – is in the big Graded races and in the biggest handicaps….
In those kinds of races – the most competitive races run for most money –trends and race stats have more clout….
They go deeper and they have more meaning. Year on year the strongest stats endure – with only occasional exceptions. In the big races the historic stats are a good place to begin your selection inquiries….
But it’s definitely not the same case in the run-of-the-mill handicaps run week-to-week – races like Saturday’s Eider….
In those races the stats are generally weak. Pretty much anything can win those races. The stats generally mean next to nothing. The baseline nature of handicap racing tends to outweigh the stats in these staple races….
But you wouldn’t know it from the average stat piece focused on those races and posted all over the Internet. No distinction is made. None at all. The run-of-the-mill race is treated much the same way as the big G1 race – as though the stats were equally potent in each of the two settings….
They are not. You can take that from me. And there is mileage in opposing market scenarios driven and encouraged by this basic misunderstanding….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the weekend action. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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