Where my contrarian money is going at Kempton and Newcastle....

Friday, 26th February 2021

Where my contrarian money is going at Kempton and Newcastle….

When a Brian Ellison horse sees good money it’s generally a signal that there’s a live one out and about….

Sam’s Adventure certainly saw some money earlier in the week….

He’s been backed down from 10s to 4s and outright favouritism for tomorrow’s Eider Chase (3.15) at Newcastle….

• Don’t take the price plunge literally….

You can’t take that kind of price plunge literally, of course. Not midweek….

For sure, the bookie reps will look you in the eye and tell you every firm in the country has been besieged by a flood of hot money from punters all over the land….

In reality, what they’ve seen is a bit of educated cash from flagged-up punters – which has prompted a defensive price crash….

The prices early in the week are basically a scouting mission – helping the bookies find the right line well before the betting action really gets going on a race at the weekend….

When a bit of smart money hits the book, the layers know a bit of something about how the land lies….

You can’t blame them. Growing a pair of testicles wouldn’t necessarily assist their bottom line. And this game is a war. In a war you’ve got to get the sun behind you and into your enemy’s face….

Whatever, the Sam’s Adventure bandwagon left town days ago. And any value went with it. But he’s no cert. The 9yo’s never been beyond 3m2f for a start….

He got that trip well enough at Haydock in December. But whether or not he stays 4m1f is anybody’s guess….

I always give a horse the benefit of the doubt until its proven it can’t do something or can’t cope with a specific challenge. But I wouldn’t be taking the price about Sam’s Adventure tomorrow….

• My Eider bet....

I don’t much care for the shape of the market for tomorrow’s Eider….

Five of the 12 runners are in at 7s or shorter. Nevertheless pickings are on the slim side further down the list once you scrub one or two that look like real no hopers….

At the prices, the one I will have a crack at is CYCLOP at 9s….

I know some readers feel that I am honour-bound to put up something at 16s or bigger for every race that comes along – but in fields such as this those bets simply aren’t there most of the time….

Cyclop is fairly enough priced for a horse that has been very progressive this term – registering three wins and going up the rankings to the tune of 26lbs….

He switched from Tom Lacey to Matt Shephard’s yard in January and disappointed a little on his first run for the outfit – stinging fav-backers in the process….  

I don’t know why he ran below his standard but one below-par effort can be forgiven and he is still potentially a well-handicapped horse on a mark of 132….

His regular 5lb claimer rode him last time – despite the stable switch. This time he has Brian Hughes on his back….

That booking looks significant. It signals intent. Hughes is likely the best man for getting a job done around Newcastle….

Cyclop has always given the impression that a proper trip will suit him perfectly and if he bounces back from last time he can produce a big run

• In the Close Brothers Handicap Chase....

In the Close Brothers Handicap Chase (3.35) down at Kempton I’m pinning my colours to Chris Gordon’s MELLOW BEN at the general 16s….

He’s not been seen since the end of last year when running down the field in Royale Pagaille’s Peter Marsh at Haydock….

Too much cut in the ground did for him that afternoon. He appreciates a sounder surface and it’s likely to his advantage that he turns out at Kempton tomorrow on a preferred surface having had a decent break….

I like his mark of 135. He can do business from that perch. For sure. The form of the race he finished 3rd in at Newbury in November (where he ran off 132) tells us as much. It’s worked out nicely….

Winner that day Cap Du Nord has gone up 19lbs in the meantime and was close to going in again in both subsequent races (he reopposes tomorrow on much worse terms and at a quarter of Mellow Ben’s price)….

The 2nd horse at Newbury was Canelo. He’s up 9lbs in the meantime – having won the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby next time out. And several other horses have come out of that Newbury handicap and registered wins since….

I don’t think Mellow Ben’s price takes into account how potentially well handicapped he is tomorrow – on ideal ground. I’m going in….

• The final word….

That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….

Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd