Wednesday, 3rd March 2021
Yesterday – as part of our ongoing prep-work for Cheltenham – I highlighted the competitivity of big-gun yards in handicaps run at the Festival across the last 7-seasons….
Gordon Elliott is the standout operator with 50% of his qualifying participants (including 10 winners) producing competitive performances in their races….
But with every hour that passes it seems more unlikely that Gordon Elliott will be at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. The picture of him sitting astride a dead horse on his gallops is a scandal from which he might not recover….
He faces punishment from the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board – who meet with him on Friday. Here in the UK, the BHA has barred him from having runners until the Irish inquiry is complete….
Meanwhile, Cheveley Park Stud have removed horses from Elliott’s yard and rehomed them. Elliott has lost his ambassadorial role with Betfair. Now yard sponsors are withdrawing support….
Cheltenham is just two weeks ahead of us. Given the current climate and public perception of Elliott sitting at absolute rock bottom, it’s difficult to envisage him playing any part in Festival proceedings….
Take Elliott out of our table above and it’s Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins who become the men of most interest – based on most recent history….
Both handlers will have big teams in attendance at Cheltenham and both have respective track records of success in Festival handicaps that put most other yards in the shade. They have the Festival knack – and the ammunition….
In a fortnight’s time their runners will no doubt represent an early port of call for many punters. That being the case, I’ve a couple of simple observations to make….
One – when it comes to outright winners there’s no doubt that Nicky Henderson has done better with handicap hurdlers at the meeting than with handicap chasers….
The win count reads 4-1. But note that there have been more runners over hurdles than fences and that the overall place strike rate actually favours the chasers. Nothing is straightforward….
But, in terms of getting home in front of everything else, the hurdlers have done the best of the business for the Seven Barrows yard – at 5s, 9s, 14s and 28s….
Two – it’s a similar story with Willie Mullins. From 2014 onwards, his handicap hurdlers have easily outstripped his handicap chasers at the Festival….
It’s fair to say that Mullins hasn’t been profligate on the handicap chasing front. I think he saves his better handicap chase options for Punchestown – where his place strike rate is 32%….
Or maybe Mullins simply hasn’t had the handicap chase ammunition for Cheltenham…. or hasn’t got lucky yet….
The stats can’t tell you that kind of thing. They can only tell you what happened previously. And in previous years the handicap hurdlers Mullins sent to the Festival were of more interest than his chasers. The win count reads 6-1….
Sorting the wheat from the chaff (in an average year Mullins has 11 or 12 handicap hurdlers in action at the meeting) isn’t always easy. But the rewards have been there for punters – with three of the winners sent off at 20s, 20s and 25s and plenty of placed horses also going off at big prices….
Note: I include 5th place in my place stats – on the basis that most bookies will pay out on 5th in Festival handicaps….
I mentioned Paul Nicholls yesterday – how he doesn’t do as well in the Festival handicaps as you might expect and why I think that might be so….
I mention him again today because he’s another handler whose better performances in recent Festival handicaps have been produced by hurdlers rather than chasers….
His win count reads 5-2 and the place strike rate achieved by the hurdles is much better….
I can’t explain in any definitive sense why handicap hurdlers have done better for all three big yards. It could be happenstance or basic statistical anomaly (we’re not dealing with scientific data samples here)….
Or it could be that the big-yard hurdlers are generally younger than the chasers and perhaps only really coming to hand and starting to find an incline on their progressive curve as spring comes around….
Maybe the chasers in these yards have already done a fair bit of their improving (and going up the rankings) earlier in the season – hence they haven’t been as competitive as the hurdlers at Cheltenham….
I don’t know. But the split in favour of hurdles doesn’t run true across the board. For David Pipe – to use a single example – it’s the other way around. He’s had more joy in Festival handicaps with his chasers – with a win count that reads 4-0….
Different yards have different ways of doing things – and that leads to different outcomes….
We don’t have to know exactly what goes on in any single yard. It is enough to know what the general outcome produced by each yard has amounted to most recently – and to have that information logged in our knowledge bank going forward….
Which brings me to my final point (the point I had intended putting most focus on today) – Joseph Patrick O’Brien….
Expect a big performance from his yard in the handicaps at this season’s Festival….
I’m not saying he’s going to win every handicap he sends a horse into. But I’m expecting big competitive runs from at least some of his handicappers….
And I’m not just plucking Joseph O’Brien’s name out of thin air. His Festival handicap record over the past few years speaks for itself. His handicappers get competitive on a significant basis….
Since he was first represented at a Festival in 2017 he’s had just 14 qualifying runners (he doesn’t waste bullets) – but 50% of them proved competitive on the day….
For sure, there’s only a single winner to date. But that’s going to change going forward. I’m in no doubt that Joseph O’Brien is going to be a top-table trainer in time….
It is big winners on the biggest days that will ultimately propel him into that rarefied orbit. And winners in the jumps game don’t come any bigger than those you saddle at the Cheltenham Festival….
You can be sure O’Brien is savvy to that fact and you can rely on it that he’ll be seeking to time his horses to the moment….
The young man is a quality operator and he’s already shown early signs that he can get the job done at Cheltenham. Expect him to build on his record in a fortnight’s time….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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