Friday, 5th March 2021
The weeks are spinning around quickly – like the reels on a one-armed bandit….
It’s Friday again – and time for me to put my money where my mouth is in the biggest of the weekend handicaps….
I take a contrarian stance – purposely ignoring the most likely winners (the horses trading at the shortest prices) and digging out a selection that is potentially overlooked and underestimated at a bigger price….
That’s the game at ATC. You don’t need me to tell you that the horses at the top of the market have a big chance. My job is to dig out a left-field runner with a better chance than the market believes….
I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….
Here’s where my contrarian money is going tomorrow afternoon….
It’s an interesting market for the Greatwood Gold Cup (1.50) at Newbury….
The in-form horses are pretty much up at the top of the betting and there are plenty of big prices further down the list about horses you’d have to be taking a chance on for one reason or another….
Nestled in between the two groups is the Noel Williams-trained ANOTHER CRICK – and he looks the bet for me at this morning’s 11s….
The 8yo’s had a quiet season to date. He’s been on the comeback trail after a lengthy absence that followed back-to-back handicap wins over fences back in 2019 at Newbury and Kempton….
They’ve taken it steady with him. But whatever was ailing him looks to have been sorted out. He showed up well in a novice hurdle at Uttoxeter in December – a typical pipe opener. Then his prep stepped up a notch and he ran a decent race at Warwick over fences last month….
He was 4th of 12 and beaten 4.5 lengths that day. He was probably a little in need of the run – still working his way back to fitness – but showed a good attitude and kept up to his work in the closing stages. That’s exactly what you want to see….
He turns up here with the benefit of that recent run and towards the bottom end of the weights. Paddy Brennan’s been on him the last twice and takes the assignment again tomorrow….
The horse is rated 133. I’ve got no doubt whatsoever that he can rate higher than that. He’s only had five races over fences and could prove very progressive back to his best. In my book, he’s a little underestimated at the prices….
In case you missed it….It’s been another busy week on ATC…. On Monday – the focus was on a fit and firing horse handicapped to win in the weeks ahead…. On Tuesday – I detailed the trainers most likely to be most competitive in this season’s handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival…. On Wednesday – I highlighted a yard that hasn’t had many runners to date in Festival handicaps but which always means business…. On Thursday – I detailed exactly how dominant the Irish have been in the Festival handicaps across the last decade…. Next week, we go again. Stay tuned…. |
At Kelso in the Morebattle Hurdle (3.15) I’m going to back SOLO at this morning’s 12s….
This is a horse with a bit of class. He was good enough to win a G2 juvenile hurdle on his first go in Britain for Paul Nicholls last year – earning himself a revised official rating of 157….
He’s only 5 and this season was probably always going to be difficult for him in that context. He’s disappointed three times – most recently in the Lanzarote at Kempton in January – where he wasn’t unfancied in the betting but didn’t get home….
The upshot is that he turns out for decent money at Kelso tomorrow – back over 2-miles and rated just 141. He’s dropped 16lbs down the handicap for four defeats….
The temptation with a horse like this is to wait until he shows a bit more before backing him. Fair enough. But in so doing you can miss the win. I’m going to try and catch the falling knife….
But I’m not just tilting at windmills. Instead, I’m taking note of Paul Nicholls’ comments earlier in the week – that the horse has been showing signs of late of coming back to himself….
A bit of spring sunshine and some better ground might just be the tonic for a highly-thought of youngster whose future lies over fences. In the meantime, off 141, he could prove plenty good enough for the opposition tomorrow over hurdles….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Greatwood Gold Cup (1.50 @ Newbury).
In the Morebattle Hurdle (3.15 @ Kelso).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back on Monday. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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