Monday, 15th March 2021
The Ultima – my feature target on Day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival – has already disappointed….
Just 16 horses go to post – eight horses short of the maximum permitted field….
It’s the lowest turnout since 2008 and just the second time in nine years that we haven’t seen at least 23 horses head to the start….
I hope it’s not a sign of things to come across the week….
In the handicaps it is the biggest fields that produce the best-value betting opportunities….
The fewer the runners, the more efficient the market and the harder it is to find genuine ‘live’ contenders at bigger prices. That’s my experience at any rate….
Of course, it’s a different kind of Festival this year. Nobody – save for the absolute essential stable staff – will be at the track….
There won’t be the same volume of ‘social’ runners. And with all the hassle involved in conforming to COVID-19 regulations, many trainers will avoid sending horses on a ‘roll the dice and see what happens’ basis….
It could be the handicaps are ultra-competitive as a result – but with fewer horses taking part than on an average year. We will see how it pans out….
Just two favourites have won the Ultima since 1994….
But that stat must be balanced against the fact that 13 of the last 19 winners were sent off at 10s or shorter….
In other words, horses towards the top end of the market have been the ones heading into the winner’s enclosure….
It would be easy work to make a case for any of Happygolucky, Aye Right, One For The Team and Milan Native. History says one of those horses will win tomorrow afternoon….
But history – whilst important and informative – is not always a reliable indicator what is yet to come….
And repeating what the market is already expressing loud and clear is not what this column is all about….
My assignment– albeit self-imposed – is to dig out a left-field runner with a better chance than the market believes….
Where tomorrow’s Ultima (2.30) is concerned Victor Dartnell’s ADMIRAL’S SECRET stands out as a left-field qualifier at the general 20s….
The 10yo’s been in the form of his life across the last 16-months – winning three of his six races and hitting the frame in the others….
Alan Johns appears to be the key to the horse’s improved performances….
It’s difficult to quantify exactly how a jockey improves a horse. It’s a complex issue with plenty of details and variables at play….
It is enough for us to know that the partnership between horse and jockey is working. The pair come into tomorrow’s race having produced a career-best performance at Warwick last time out….
The 10yo came from the back that day – in a race where the principals had been on the pace all the way. A little further and he would have overhauled them. He finished the race with a really good rattle….
Tomorrow will be his first time up at the 3m trip. You could take that as a negative. I see it the other way. He looked like a 3-miler in the making at Warwick and I take him to improve again for the extra furlongs tomorrow….
His trainer clearly feels the same way. This horse could have been sent into Wednesday’s Paddy Power Plate over 2m5f – but he’s been sent for the Ultima instead. It’s a sign of confidence that the horse will excel for this new trip….
He’s not been overworked this term and turns up fresher than most. The drying ground won’t bother him and with 10-10 on his back he’ll be racing off a nice weight….
He doesn’t run out of a fashionable yard and he might be seen as an exposed horse. Hence his price….
But I prefer to see him as a fit horse, a fresh horse, an in-form horse, an improved horse – and a horse stepping up to a trip that gives him a good opportunity to improve again….
He’s an each-way player for me. Some firms are up ¼ the first 4…. Most firms are up at 1/5 the first 5. Which way you choose to go will most likely boil down to what you value most – more price or more places….
If you’re looking for standout deal in the market right now – Skybet are up at 1/5 the first 7. Those are generous terms in a 16-runner race….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Ultima (2.30 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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