Tuesday, 16th March 2021
A 62-length drubbing last time out doesn’t read on paper like the ideal way to prep for a big Festival handicap like tomorrow’s Coral Cup (2.30)….
But that isn’t going to stop me backing DYSART DIAMOND – trained by Willie Mullins and up at a big 25s….
The mare was favourite for that last-time-out race at Leopardstown – having gone up 11lbs for putting a large field to the sword in a novice handicap debut the time before….
Ahead of the last race Willie Mullins was making noises about the heavy ground not aiding Dysart Diamond’s cause – and maybe she was never going to figure that day despite heavy market support….
But she was making up ground on the inside under Paul Townend when getting badly hampered by a faller at the second last obstacle….
Granted, she still had a fair bit to do at that point – but Townend wasn’t flapping in the saddle and she seemed to still have fuel in the tank when her chance had gone. It just wasn’t her day….
She’ll get better ground tomorrow and she looks the type to benefit from a couple of extra furlongs. The British handicapper has put her up another 7lbs to 137 for tomorrow’s race. Despite that, she could still prove well-in….
Townend has deserted her – preferring to take the ride on Koshari. You could take that as a negative – but in my book it doesn’t mean a thing….
Mullins has a habit of going well in these Festival handicap hurdle events with horses that look like the second, third or fourth stringers ahead of the race….
The bottom line insight to take from previous Festivals is this: if they’re lining up for Mullins in a handicap hurdle, they’re not here to make up the numbers….
In a 28-runner handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, I want to be two-against-the-field. That’s how I play it. I’ll be going for broke and backing both horses win only….
The other one I’m backing is Gary Moore’s BOTOX HAS at 16s….
The 5yo has had this as his target for some time and Gary Moore has talked about laying the horse out for the race in the same way he’s laid Goshen out for this afternoon’s Champion Hurdle….
In other words, no stone has been left unturned and all the bases have been covered….
Moore has a decent record down the years of targeting the big 2m handicap hurdle races and you can expect this horse to turn out fully tuned-up for the job….
The key might turn out to be the weight the horse carries. Botox Has is only a small horse and Moore has put three defeats this term down to the horse carrying big weights. Tomorrow the horse shoulders just 10-13 – and that’s seen as a big plus back at home….
One thing is for sure: the track suits. The 5yo has run well at Cheltenham on each of three visits to the place – winning twice and getting beaten just 2.5 lengths in a G2 hurdle by the highly regarded Allmankind on the other occasion….
I’m expecting a big run….
The Grand Annual (4.15) has been shifted from Friday to Wednesday – and from the New course to the Old course….
Maybe horses that like to race handy will have the edge now on the sharper turns of the Old course….
On the New course – which tends to favour stamina over speed – we saw plenty of winners over the years coming from miles back. Perhaps we won’t see so much of that going forward. Time will tell….
Joseph O’Brien’s Embittered (3rd in last season’s County Hurdle) – with Rachael Blackmore up – is the one the market has come for ahead of the race….
But he’s also sending US AND THEM who attends on the back of a 109 day break and might well have been set this race as his specific target for a while….
It would make some sense given that he ran 3rd in the race last year – despite not been great at some of his fences….
He turned up for that race looking like a horse out of form. But on the day he produced a clear career best on Racing Post ratings. Maybe this is his time of the year….
He’s a fresher horse this time around and he turns out a pound lower than last time on 147. Last year’s winner Chosen Mate reopposes – but on worse terms….
In a race that has often rewarded returning horses – albeit this year’s renewal is on a different course – Joseph O’Brien’s second stringer is an interesting runner up at 16s….
The other one I’m going to chance is Mick Channon’s GLEN FORSA at 22s….
He’s had his problems – resulting in some long breaks from racing – but he was very promising as a novice and at one point he was talked about as a possible Champion Chase horse….
He’s looked a long way short of that level in recent times. But he’s dropped to a mark of 147 and he is potentially well handicapped on the best of his form….
Of course, he needs to bounce back. And I could make the case that I need to see some of that bounce before he becomes a betting proposition….
But the fact that he’s at the Festival at all is interesting – and I like the set-up….
He’s had a wind-op and a good break since he was last seen. And Tom Scudamore – a rider I rate in these Festival handicaps – comes in for the ride. I see him attacking from the front….
The bottom line is that on 147 and on the back of a rest (Glen Forsa has gone well fresh before) and having had a procedure – that might well have fixed a problem – this horse is a potential springer with the ability to significantly outrun market expectation….
I’ll be going for broke and backing both horses to win….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Coral Cup (2.30 @ Cheltenham).
In the Grand Annual (4.15 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
PS. I sent out my advice for today's (Day 1) races yesterday. If you missed that you can view that advice here....
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