Thursday, 18th March 2021
Paul Nicholls has won the County Hurdle four times and THYME WHITE can give a good account of himself for the yard in tomorrow’s edition (1.55). He’s worth backing at the general 22s & 20s….
Last seen in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last month, the 5yo travelled smoothly into the race and loomed-up ominously two hurdles from home….
He looked like he was going to be a big player at the death, but his run petered out quickly the landing side of the final hurdle….
He likely needed the run having not been seen on the track since November. And the ground would have been against him too….
With that Newbury run sure to have sharpened him up and the ground at Cheltenham drying out all the time, he’s going to be a live contender tomorrow off his mark of 140….
The drying ground will also assist Neil Mulholland’s MILKWOOD – up at 33s & 28s generally….
Like Thyme White, Milkwood hadn’t been seen since before Christmas when turning out for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury….
Like Thyme White he probably needed the run to sharpen him up a bit….
And like Thyme White a punctuated campaign – in which he hasn’t really shown his full hand – sees him turn out tomorrow with a mark of just 140….
Coincidentally, Milkwood and Thyme White both contested the same Listed class handicap at Newbury in November. Thyme White unseated Harry Cobden that day at the second last hurdle and Milkwood might very well have won had he not been badly hampered by that incident….
He wasn’t brought to a standstill, but it wasn’t far off and he lost a lot of lengths as a result. It was a testament to the horse’s ability and willingness that he quickly got going again and managed to finish within 2-lengths of the winner….
He will surely prove better than his current rating and good ground is the key to finding that progression….
Henry De Bromhead’s COMMANDINGPRESENCE is my horse for the show-closing Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at 4.50….
Up at 22s he’s a proper dark horse price about a proper dark horse….
The Irish point-to-point graduate hasn’t been seen since getting well beaten in a G3 novice hurdle at Cork back in December….
I think heavy ground contributed to that performance. And the 3m trip might just have found him out a little. He was put away afterwards and I think it’s been the plan to wait for good ground – the like of which he’ll get tomorrow….
He won his maiden on decent ground at Punchestown back in September – and that was a very taking performance….
He won easily and – while I’m not sure he beat much – the way he did it was impressive. He finished well clear of the rest and he ran hard through the line and proved difficult to pull up – often a sign of something half-decent. One thing is for sure – he’s got a decent engine….
He’s back down to the 2m4f trip tomorrow and he runs off an opening handicap mark of 133. I think he’s going to prove plenty better than that over time. It looks like a generous assessment to me….
I can sympathize with the handicapper. I’d imagine – with so little reliable evidence to work with – that this 6yo was difficult to assess. The horse has a great opportunity to capitalize tomorrow….
I’m backing just the one in this – and going with him each-way. Sky Bet and Betfred are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the County Hurdle (1.55 @ Cheltenham).
In the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (4.50 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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