Wednesday, 24th March 2021
I don’t mind telling you that I absolutely love racing on the level....
The jump racing is damn good at its best – for sure. But for me the flat tops it....
Why? That’s simple....
The turf flat provides a more regular stream of the targets I like to shoot at – big-field handicaps with plenty of the right horses to be found at the wrong prices in the market....
And it does so at trips I just love....
There’s nothing wrong with a 3m2f chase. Nothing at all....
But for me, the handicaps over the shorter flat distances – the cavalry charges – are the magic of the game....
I love Cheltenham, I love Aintree and I love a fair proportion of the individual races run over the course of the jumps season....
But the flat is what really gets me buzzing. Loads of big handicap puzzles week-on-week and loads of big prices to have a proper crack at....
The jump racing is exciting. But the proper betting races flow slow and steady. There’s fewer of them and bigger gaps in-between. On the flat the action is thick and fast and unrelenting. And that’s the way I like it best....
We get started this weekend on Day 1 of the 2021 flat season at Doncaster with the Lincoln and the Spring Mile – with horses that don’t make the former race getting to go in the latter which acts as a consolation event....
Of course, enjoying something and finding it easy are not the same thing. Nor does one thing automatically follow the other....
Fact is that big-field handicaps are not easy to solve. They are tough and perplexing betting puzzles that a lot of punters steer clear of....
But not me. I go where mistakes are most likely to be made by both layers and the market….
I don’t mind how hard it is. I want to try and capitalize on those errors of thinking and/or pricing....
I back myself; I back my methods; and I back my work ethic....
And, truth be told, it probably wouldn’t be as much fun if the job was easier than it is....
Saturday’s races – both class 2 handicap events for horses aged 4yo+ up Doncaster’s straight mile – are that bit more complex and unfathomable because they are curtain-openers for the season....
Plenty of runners haven’t been seen since the end of last term. Those that have will have been doing their work on the AW....
And plenty of yards are yet to show their hand in terms of how fit and forward their respective teams are at this early stage of the year....
But these races are there to be won for yards with fit horses....
And both these races have been won at big prices for punters over the course of the last decade....
And to be honest with you, I don’t worry too much about trying to figure out if horses are fit or not. How can you know for sure unless you are involved with the horse?
Unless a trainer comes out and says his horse is unfit, I assume fitness....
And plenty are fit first-time-up – primed for the job. 17 of the last 22 Lincoln and the Spring Mile (11 x 2 races = 22 renewals) were won by horses that hadn’t been seen on a track for 150+ days....
A recent run on the AW or a winter campaign of runs is not necessarily an advantage....
All that said, let me throw another complexity into the pot – February 2020 was the wettest February on record since records began in 1862. Perhaps that has had some affect on the amount of work some yards have managed to get into their horses….
I am no weather expert but looking at a couple of charts on the Met Office website this morning it’s clear the Eastern part of the country was worst affected – including parts of Yorkshire….
Expect Richard Fahey to be cocked and loaded with runners for both events....
He isn’t shy when it comes to throwing numbers at these specific races. He’s saddled 54 horses over the last 11-years....
Plenty of his runners have proven to be chaff. But there’s been some good wheat mixed in there too – with 4 winners, 10 placers and 3 additional 5th and 6th placed finishes from the contingent....
I think we can safely draw the conclusion that he takes these handicaps on the opening day quite seriously. He likes to throw a marker or two down....
And I shouldn’t imagine too much will change this time around. He’ll be on the hunt. And anything he runs demands the once-over....
David O’Meara knows how to get one ready for these early-doors contests too....
His last 20 runs in either race have produced just a single Lincoln winner, but an additional 7 runners placed in their respective events and three more finished 6th or 7th in 20+ runner fields.....
You’d have to say that he’s been knocking on the door quite frequently. Sooner or later, it is going to open for him again....
William Haggas has won four Lincoln’s over the years. Other trainers with notable form include Michael Dods (a Lincoln and a Spring Mile) and Charlie Appleby (two Spring Miles)….
Can the draw help or hurt a horse in Saturday’s race up Town Moor’s mile straight?
The following table details the performances of horses running from three distinct parts of the track in the last seven Lincoln and the last seven Spring Mile renewals – low drawn, mid-drawn and high-drawn....
The figures relate to wins, places, 5th and 6th place finishes. And the number of top 6 finishes produced from each part of the draw is then expressed as a percentage of total runners from each specific part of the draw....
It’s quick, it’s dirty and it won’t win any noble prizes for scientific rigor....
But the figures serve a purpose....
The results of the last seven Spring Mile renewals and the last seven Lincoln renewals taken together suggest that being drawn in the high third might be more advantageous than being drawn in the middle or on the low wing of the race – in terms of getting competitive….
One thing the committed percentage player will do with Saturday’s race is to his form study to the 4-year-olds....
Last year’s classic generation have another winter of growth, development, and maturation under their belts – and many will be yet to peak....
They are the horses most likely to be turning out with most progression within their grasp and with most in hand on an official handicapper – who can’t be quite sure where he is with any of these fast-maturing youngsters....
What he will find with many is that he is well behind them. That they have progressed beyond his estimations during the close-season. And the 4-year-olds have a history of flagging that reality up in Saturday’s target races....
The 4yos have won 15 of the last 22 renewals of either race. That same generation also accounted for 19 place finishes, eight 5th place finishes and nine 6th place finishes....
The 4yo horses are very competitive, but the 5yos can’t be entirely discounted. That age-group produced 3 winners and a tonne of placed, 5th and 6th finishes over the last decade. But it is the 4yos that have proved well-enough handicapped to win most frequently....
Backing horses older than 5? It’s not impossible, but you are winging it a little....
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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