Friday, 2nd April 2021
Just 13 go to post for tomorrow’s Scottish Sprint Cup (3.00) at Musselburgh – over the 5f trip….
That’s the smallest field since 2002 (as far back as my detailed records go) and might be an indication that last year’s decision to move the race back from the late May/early June meeting to this weekend will ultimately backfire….
No matter. That remains to be seen. In this game, we work with what we are presented with….
As always in these early-season handicaps, you’re having to take something on trust regarding the fitness of some runners….
Ed Walker’s CAME FROM THE DARK falls into that category. He’s not been seen since the end of last term when his final two runs at York and Doncaster were nothing short of underwhelming….
Prior to that he’d looked both impressive and progressive in two runs at Haydock in September – two bits of form that tie in strongly to Count D’orsay who reopposes tomorrow….
There’s not much to choose between the pair on ratings or on price. But Ed Walker’s 5yo – who cost 480,000 guineas as a juvenile – might just have the edge in terms of scope for progression this term….
He’s been gelded and he’s had a wind-op – both procedures that might help him take steps forward (albeit in different ways) and put those season-ending runs at York and Doncaster behind him….
He likes a flat track – his record at Haydock illustrates that point – and the little bit of juice in the Musselburgh ground is also to his advantage. He’s also won on his seasonal return to action before – and that’s another positive….
Hollie Doyle takes the ride on the horse for the first time. She’s 2 from 3 at Musselburgh – so no extensive experience of the track but a fine return from the rides she’s taken….
The 9s is fair enough in the context of the race….
Mark Johnston won this race last year with Austrian School and he clearly intends to emerge victorious again this year – his yard accounting for 5 of the 14 runners….
The market likes Trumpet Man at 7s with Franny Norton up. Fair enough. I prefer the claims of KING’S ADVICE at 10s under 5lb claimer Andrew Breslin….
Think back to the start of March 2019. King’s Advice was rated 71 when he won a lowly C5 handicap down at Lingfield on the All Weather….
He won 7 of his next 8 on the AW and on the turf flat – rising all the way up the ratings scale to the dizzy heights of 112….
He was heavily fancied for the Ebor at York that year – sent off at 7s on the day. But he never travelled and got well beaten….
Fast forward to tomorrow and he turns out having not won in 11 races since his Ebor assignment. His rating has dropped all the way down to 96 – 12lbs short of the mark he won off at Goodwood in August 2019….
Ratings drop when horses fail to perform. But sooner or later – assuming the horse is sound and retains some talent and some enthusiasm – the plunging official mark enables the horse to come again….
This one is plenty down. He’s on a winning rating. And it is now that Mark Johnston rolls the dice and applies a claimer on the horse for the first time….
Perhaps the horse really is so bad these days he needs all the help he can get – just to keep up with the others. Or maybe the claimer is onboard to give the horse extra leverage in an already advantageous situation….
On his best efforts, the 7yo is weighted to go mighty well tomorrow. At 10s, I’m happy to roll the dice and find out if he can capitalize….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Scottish Sprint Trophy (3.00 @ Musselburgh).
In the Queen’s Cup (3.35 @ Musselburgh).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back on Sunday with my take on Monday’s Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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