Thursday, 8th April 2021
When I’m watching a race unfold live, I generally focus my attention on just one horse – frequently not the one I’ve backed….
It’ll be a horse I’ve taken an interest in. Or one doing something new. Or one trying to overcome some type of adversity….
In tomorrow afternoon’s Topham Handicap Chase at Aintree (4.05) it will be a horse who ticks all three of those boxes – Ibleo, trained by Venetia Williams….
I’ve had my eye on him since he finished behind Sky Pirate at Cheltenham in December. He’s won twice since – in what’s been a great season for the 8yo. He’s improved with every run and gone up the official ratings to the tune of 26lbs….
Tomorrow he tries the Topham trip (and the Grand National fences) for the first time. He looked outpaced at times over the minimum trip and maybe the extra yardage tomorrow will improve him. It will probably have to – given that he’s rated 157 and pretty much in no-man’s land….
Off 157 you give weight to most or all opponents in a handicap. But at the same time – if you’re on the way up the ladder rather than down – on 157 you’ve not yet shown enough to prove you belong at a higher level….
That’s what makes Ibleo interesting in tomorrow’s race for me. I want to see if he can take the next step forward….
I won’t be backing Ibleo. He’s up at 12s this morning. In a handicap race where 28 go to post, I want to be on something with a bit more meat on the bone than that….
Senior Citizen has been aimed at this race all season by Alan King. I can see him running a big one. But at 12s the price isn’t there for me on him either….
The one I want to be on is Sue Smith’s RAVENHILL ROAD at the general 20s….
A wind-op – in combination with better ground – saw the 10yo produce a career best at Doncaster last month….
In a small field he made all under tomorrow’s rider, Ryan Mania. He wasn’t up against any superstars but what he had to do he did well….
He got several of his opponents at it a long way out; found another gear when pressed 3 out; pushed on and went clear 2 fences from home; stayed on strong; eased up ahead of the post; and won comfortably over 7-lengths with the horses behind him strung out like washing….
It was a convincing performance – one that tells of a horse in rude health and good form heading into tomorrow’s race….
The handicapper put him up 9lbs for the win. It might appear harsh. But it’s a fair enough hike based on visual impressions at Doncaster. Sue Smith’s charge looked to have any amount in hand and gave the impression there could be much more to come this spring….
That Doncaster race was over 2m3f. This step back up to 2m5f is no problem. If he takes to the Grand National fences, Ravenhill Road can run another big race for a trainer/jockey combination with form over these big obstacles….
Each-way punters take note: Sky Bet pay out 1/5 on the first 7 home. Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook William Hill & Betfred pay out 1/5 on the first 6 home. Most firms are up 1/5 the first 5….
Earlier on the card in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (1.45) JACAMAR looks a fair bet at the available 25s, 22s & 20s….
He’s been going very much the right way this term – taking several steps forward in a campaign that’s seen him win twice….
The first of those wins came in a C2 over tomorrow’s course and distance back in October under Paddy Brennan – who resumes riding duties tomorrow….
He was 3lbs out of the weights that day – but he had no bother on him overcoming that perceived disadvantage. He was held up at the back; raced wide; made really good headway; and stayed on strong to the line. Something like that tomorrow would be ideal….
He won another C2 handicap at Wincanton in December – beating Southfield Harvest a neck – with the rest of the field 24+ lengths in arrears….
Jacamar was rated 127 that day. He’s up to 135 now. Obviously, the further up the handicap you go, the harder it gets.
But this horse is on an upward trend – he’s recorded three new tops this term – and there could well be more to come. I’d imagine this race has been a plan since the Aintree win in October – and I like the fact that Brennan is back on the horse for tomorrow’s assignment….
I’m not concerned about the last-time-out run in the NHF race at Kempton where he was a beaten favourite – and you can read what you like into that, by the way….
Each-way punters take note: Most firms are up 1/5 the first 5….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (1.45 @ Aintree).
In the Topham Handicap Chase (4.05 @ Aintree).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today….
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the handicaps on Day 3 at Aintree….
Until then. Stay tuned.
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