Friday, 9th April 2021
‘What’s going to win the Grand National?’
If you’re someone like me who writes about horses, you’re going to hear that question a lot of at this time of year….
The honest answer is the same as it is for any big race. I haven’t got a clue….
Nobody knows. Not for sure….
The result isn’t written in the stars. It isn’t a predestined certainty waiting to unfold like an unboxed Eve mattress. There’s no calculation, formula, or magic spell you can put to work to find or produce the definitive answer….
The Grand National is a horse race. And a handicap at that. It will turn out how it will. Nobody knows exactly how ahead of time. Not for sure….
The 40 horses and 40 jockeys that go to post tomorrow afternoon at 5.15 will slug it out over 30 fences and 4m2f of emerald-green Aintree track….
Then we’ll know the answer to the puzzle. Then we’ll know who’s who and what’s what….
Until then, it’s up in the air and open to a mix of interpretation, speculation, and unvarnished guesswork….
Nobody knows. Not for sure….
‘So, what damned use is a horse racing writer?’
My friend, in the dead of night I’ve often asked myself the very same question….
And the brutal truth is that the horse racing writer might not be very much use at all – not to man, not to beast and not to wider humanity….
He just does his best to assess the events of a confusing and contradictory past – and to predict the events of an uncertain future as well as the next man….
The difference is that the next man might not go public with his findings or his conclusions….
While the next man might risk losing only the money he puts down on the fruit of his deliberations, the horse racing writer risks looking like a fool or a knave….
That being the case, the astute horse racing writer tasked with putting up a horse in tomorrow’s Grand National might choose to hide in the warm embrace of the crowd and go with out-and-out favourite Cloth Cap – who has plenty going for him….
If or when the bet goes pear-shaped, the canny old horse racing writer can be wrong in the good company of tens of thousands of other wrong-headed punters and pundits….
It’s an age-old game played by racing writers up and down the land. There’s no harm intended. It’s the way the world works. Safety in numbers. But where’s the fun in it?
Handicaps are framed – notionally at least – so that every horse running has an equal chance of winning the race….
That’s the idea behind handicaps. It’s not a perfect science. There’s a lot more to the outcome of any handicap than just official ratings – on which weights carried are based….
But every horse – at its best and in the right conditions – is supposed to be able to win. And this horse racing writer chooses to take that notion literally….
That being the case, I never bet the fancied horses. I’m always against them. I always oppose the crowd in the markets. I always try to dig out a ‘live’ contender at a big price. I always swing the bat….
Like it or loathe it, that’s how I play. Always have. Always will….
Of course, it’s a game plan that often ends up with me looking like a fool – or a knave. But after 20+ years of experience in that particular field, I’m used to it….
I stick with my contrarian approach to betting handicaps because I’ve had plenty of big-priced winners across the years. More than you’d think….
And – whilst always operating in a state of doubt – one thing I know for sure is that the next winning big-priced bet is always just around the corner….
Which brings me to this season’s Grand National at Aintree tomorrow (5.15)….
MAGIC OF LIGHT was 2nd in the 2019 Grand National and this season has been all about Jessica Harrington getting the mare back to Aintree for another crack at the race….
She’s still only 10, she’s carrying a nice weight, preparations have gone without a hitch. And she’s a fair bet at the 20s under Robbie Power….
For sure, you can look at her performances this term – with the exception of the win at Newbury – and make the argument that she’s been off-colour. But I’d argue the case with you….
She was racing on unsuitable heavy ground off her summer break at Punchestown. She had no right on the ratings to beat Roksana in the G2 at Ascot. And last time at Cheltenham she was racing over an inadequate trip….
Jessica Harrington expressed herself ‘delighted’ with the mare’s run at Cheltenham. When you consider it was a 34l beating that tells you something about priorities. Everything has been about the Grand National this year and I expect the mare to be tuned-up for a serious crack….
Unlike plenty above and around her in the market, we know she jumps the fences, we know she handles the track, we know she can hold her position in the race, we know she stays and we know she’ll appreciate the quicker spring ground. If she gets the run of the race then she can run another big one….
If she’s my more obvious one then CLASS CONTI is the potential surprise package at 50s….
His running style is a slight concern – he has a tendency to get too far back in his races. But he’s been running exclusively on soft and heavy ground in Ireland and he could improve significantly for better ground tomorrow. I think there’s a big chance he could run a different type of race under Brian Hayes….
He’s placed 2nd and 3rd in the last two editions of the Thyestes at Gowran Park – despite running on from the rear. He produced those performances on desperate ground. If he does improve for tomorrow’s better surface, he’s likely got the stamina to last home better than most….
He might be the Mullins third or fourth string – but that doesn’t mean he’s a no-hoper. Not by a long chalk. He’s the right age, he carries a nice racing weight and he can go better than the price says….
Each-way punters take note: Boylesports pay out 1/5 on the first 7 home. Most firms are up 1/5 the first 6. There might yet be better terms to come. I hear Betfred are going to pay out on 8 places….
In the Betway Handicap Chase (4.15) Tom Lacey’s JOHNBB returns to action off a 105-day lay-off and is worth a bet at the generals 14s….
He doesn’t take his races too close together and he’s failed to back up good performances a few times when asked to do so too quickly….
On the other hand, he’s gone well fresh off long breaks and tomorrow is a good time to catch him. He’s 3 from 5 over fences, still only rated 137 and there’s more to come yet….
Each-way punters take note: 15 go to post and Sky Bet pay out 1/5 on the first 5 home. Most firms are up 1/5 the first 4….
In the EFT Systems Handicap Hurdle (1.45) ASHTOWN LAD rates a bet at 14s….
He was very much on an upward curve for Dan Skelton earlier this term with three good performances on the bounce in novice and handicap company….
He found life more difficult in a brace of G2 events at Cheltenham and Doncaster, but he’s had a nice break, he’s had a wind-op and he will appreciate this drop back down to handicap company. I reckon he’s underestimated at the price….
Each-way punters take note: Sky Bet pay out 1/5 on the first 7 home. Most firms are up 1/5 the first 5….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the EFT Systems Handicap Hurdle (1.45 @ Aintree).
In the Betway Handicap Chase (4.15 @ Aintree).
In the Grand National (5.15 @ Aintree).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today….
I’ll be back in your inbox next week….
Until then. Stay tuned.
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