Friday, 23rd April 2021
Plan Of Attack is favourite for Saturday’s bet365 Gold Cup. He’s priced-up at 4s across the board….
At least some of his appeal is down to the fact he walks hand-in-glove with current and prominent mainstream narratives….
He’s trained by trainer of the moment Henry De Bromhead – a man who has landed a Champion Hurdle, a Champion Chase, a Gold Cup and a Grand National in the last six weeks….
He’s ridden by Rachael Blackmore – instrumental in De Bromhead’s purple patch and the reigning Queen of the sport of Kings….
And he’s an Irish horse travelling to Britain to have a crack at a big handicap pot – at a time when Irish horses have been travelling to Britain for the big races and spanking the seemingly sub-standard home-team horses out of sight….
But perhaps I’m doing the horse a disservice….
Perhaps Plan Of Attack would have been race favourite anyway….
Perhaps he would have been as popular in the betting even with a different trainer, a different rider and without recent Irish dominance providing a tailwind in the market….
Perhaps. But I’m not sure I see how….
He’s certainly been highly tried in big handicaps this term – taking in the Kerry National, the Troytown, the Paddy Power Chase and the Kim Muir….
No other horse in tomorrow’s race has been fired at quite such an impressive roster of back-to-back assignments….
The trouble is he pulled-up in the first two contests and hit the deck at Cheltenham. In-between times he was beaten well-enough at Leopardstown….
You couldn’t say he’s turning out tomorrow at Sandown on a roll. And it’s difficult to envisage tomorrow’s race being a target set out for him at the start of the season….
Instead, tomorrow’s mission looks like what it is – one last stab at a big handicap pot before pulling up stumps on a season that has so far probably disappointed….
On the plus side, Plan Of Attack hasn’t blown his mark and he gets to run off 138. That’s just a pound ahead of his Irish mark – and we’ve seen Irish horses overcome much bigger British adjustments than that in recent weeks….
De Bromhead reports that Blackmore is really keen on travelling over and riding the horse. The way she’s riding and the way she must be feeling right now – her enthusiasm for the task in hand must count for something….
And – like Grand National winner Minella Times – the 8yo might improve significantly for the step up to a marathon trip….
That last point has a flip side, of course. Plan Of Attack will need to stay the trip to improve for it. And it might be that he doesn’t….
Handicap races are framed (notionally at least) so that any horse might win – given the right circumstances, conditions, and a bit of luck in-running on the day….
Plan Of Attack is no exception. Of course he can win. He’s well thought of at home for a reason. He just hasn’t delivered this term….
Tomorrow he gets a chance to put that right. He might well do so. And good luck to him. I’m not against the horse – or any horse come to that. It’s his price I have the issue with….
For me he’s too short. He can win. But I wouldn’t want to back him to do so at the price. I’ll be taking him on….
I wouldn’t argue with anybody putting money down on El Presente….
Kim Baily’s aimed his horse at this race from the moment he won the Badger at Wincanton in November. He loves going right-handed and the ground has come up absolutely perfect for him….
I expect he’ll run a big race – but at 13/2 he’s been well found and he’s not an ATC horse….
The one I like at the prices is Emma Lavelle’s IRISH PROPHECY at the 16s….
The Lavelle yard is hitting a bit of form at the right time for a horse that’s been aimed at this race since pre-Christmas….
He’s been spared work on winter ground that doesn’t suit and held back for springtime pot shots – with tomorrow’s race representing the principal target….
A spin over hurdles at Ascot at the end of last month will have blown away the cobwebs. He finished his race off nicely that day – and I’d expect him to be spot on for this weekend….
Cheekpieces were key to the improvement he found on his last two chase assignments at Exeter and Taunton – he travelled better and jumped better for their application….
He was beaten just a length at Exeter by El Presente. They meet again tomorrow on similar terms – with Irish Prophecy more than twice the other one’s price….
Lavelle’s 8yo is a progressive chaser – and there’s more to come yet. He likes a right-hander and he’ll appreciate proper spring ground….
Like the favourite, he needs to prove he stays the trip. The difference is that any doubts on that score are factored into Irish Prophecy’s price. That’s not the case with Plan Of Attack….
If you bet each-way be aware that Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6 home. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally. Some firms pay the bigger fraction of 1/4 – but only on the first 4….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the bet365 Gold Cup (3.40 @ Sandown).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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