Friday, 30th April 2021
Kieren Fallon once described the 2000 Guineas as a ‘war’ for 3yo horses. He said that only the very bravest horses win the race….
I think he made those comments following Night Of Thunder’s win back in 2014. That year’s edition of the race was white hot….
Kingman, Australia, Charm Spirit, Kingston Hill, and The Grey Gatsby all took part and all subsequently scored at G1 level. Toormore, War Command and Outstrip had all won G1 events as juveniles….
Night Of Thunder had to dig very deep that day – calling on all his reserves of stamina, grit, determination, and bravery – to deny Kingman right at the death. He had to fight like a demon – all the way to the line. Had he given an inch, he would have been defeated….
The bottom line in this race is that you can’t give an inch and that you absolutely have to stay the trip. You have to get the mile. It would be a rare horse that found a weak enough renewal of a 2000 Guineas to win without seeing the trip out very strong….
Take a look at the breeding of the horses set to go to post tomorrow at Newmarket (3.40) and there are quite a few by sires that would bring stamina into question – sires more closely associated with winners at trips shorter than a mile than they are with winners at a mile and beyond….
You might scratch those horses – but I’m not sure that whittles things down sufficiently. You’re still left with the main players and you’ve got half a dozen of those trading at 7s or shorter this morning. No absolute standout candidate has emerged in the betting….
I had a good long look at Master Of The Seas and, if you wanted to back him, I wouldn’t be the one to put you off….
He stays the mile for sure and he’s already had a run this term – which can only help a young horse from both a physical and a mental perspective….
The Dubawi colt is also 2 from 2 at the track – so you can back William Buick’s mount safe in the knowledge he handles the Newmarket idiosyncrasies that might catch others out….
But at 15/2 I’m not sure I’d be doing my contrarian duty – which is to dig out a contender that’s been genuinely overlooked in the betting. The one I think fits that specific bill is Jim Bolger’s POETIC FLARE at the general 12s….
It’s a while since Bolger had a representative in either of the Newmarket Guineas races. But he’s got a fine record with the runners he has sent over down the years – his last 15 qualifiers in either race produced 2 wins and 6 places….
That’s a fair record. It tells you Bolger doesn’t waste many bullets and that he’s not a bad shot with those he does fire….
Poetic Flare is yet to go a mile. But he showed every sign he’ll get that trip at Leopardstown earlier this month where he won the 2000 Guineas trial in decent style – always travelling strongly towards the head of affairs under Kevin Manning and keeping on well at the business end of the 7f trip….
You’d think he’d be sharper for that performance and I see him running a big race for a trainer who has proven to be a very good producer of Guineas horses over the years….
Each way punters take note that Sky Bet & William Hill are 1/5 the odds on the first 5 finishers. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally. Avoid firms offering 1/5 the odds on the first 3.
Aidan O’Brien has been kingpin in the 1000 Guineas in recent times – his last 42 runners producing 6 winners and 8 places….
His Santa Barbara – Ryan Moore’s choice of mount – is clear favourite this time around….
But in years when O’Brien has run multiple fillies, it hasn’t always been the ones the market expected that ran the biggest races on the day….
Such is the volume of talent at the O’Brien yard, that second, third or even fourth stringers in G1 classic races can turn out to be significantly better than the top boys and girls from other yards….
So, whilst Santa Barbara might ultimately turn out to be another O’Brien world beater, I’m mindful she’s only raced once and that MOTHER EARTH – the other O’Brien runner – is likely a smart filly in her own right….
An overall record of 1 win from 8 goes is not the typical profile of a 1000 Guineas winner. On the face of it, she isn’t quite good enough….
But she only really came alive in the later stages of last season – when she was 3rd in the Fillies Mile over tomorrow’s course and distance before improving again with a 2nd in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at the Breeders’ Cup….
As a relatively late foal she took time to mature and it might well be her 3yo season when she really shows her mettle….
Franke Dettori takes the ride. He narrowly missed winning the race for O’Brien on Wichita last term. Perhaps he can go one better this time….
The bottom line is that she’ll be in the race on merit rather than on sentiment and at 9s she makes a fair bet to go well….
Each way punters take note that all the bookies are currently up with standard terms - 1/5 the first 3….
I’m sitting out the Suffolk Stakes at Newmarket. The race has cut-up, only 10 runners go to post and it’s difficult to make a case against the most fancied horses….
But I am playing at Thirsk where 4yo horses dominate the betting in the Thirsk Hunt Cup (2.40) over the mile trip. And that’s fair enough….
A blind man can see the appeal of Nugget – up just 5lbs for winning the Spring Cup at Newbury last time….
A schoolboy might pick out Astro King – a last time out winner at Nottingham (the form is working out well) for Sir Michael Stoute – a trainer who rarely plays at Thirsk but rarely goes home empty-handed when he does….
There’s nothing wrong with the obvious – if that’s how you like to play. Sometimes there’s a lot to be said for it….
But in the big-field handicaps I see it as my job to ignore the obvious and to dig out a ‘live’ contender at a double-figure price instead. ON A SESSION is the one that fits the bill at 10s….
The 5yo’s only had one run for local trainer David Barron since joining his yard from Ireland. That was at Wolverhampton in a Lincoln trial in March –and the horse acquitted himself nicely enough off a mark of 91….
He cost his new connections 70,000 guineas and you’d imagine they parted with that money on the expectation that the horse had scope for improvement – perhaps benefitting from more opportunities on better ground…
You wouldn’t want to be spending that kind of cash on a handicapper that had already plateaued. So the pound rise to 92 isn’t too much of a worry. He was firing well enough on his British debut and he can improve for that. He can go well at a fair-enough price….
Each way punters take note that Sky Bet are 1/5 the odds on the first 6 finishers. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally.
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the 2000 Guineas (3.40 @ Newmarket).
In the Thirsk Hunt Cup (2.40 @ Thirsk).
In the 1000 Guineas (Sunday, 3.40 @ Newmarket).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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