Thursday, 6th May 2021
Chester is a tight little track – just a mile in circumference. It can often seem like they race around a continuous bend….
On a track like that the draw is always going to be important….
Over the shorter trips at Chester, the horses drawn on the inside – in the low-numbered stalls – are at a clear and distinct advantage. No doubt about it. And the numbers support the assertion….
Over longer trips – especially the 2m2f of tomorrow’s Chester Cup – might it be reasonable to expect that advantage to taper out to some extent?
After all, don’t the jockeys have more time to overcome an outside draw? Don’t they have more time to remedy the effects of an early disadvantageous position?
Surely over the 2m2f trip jockeys can take their time and patiently work their way towards where they want to be?
Perhaps. But not always. Maybe it’s not so clear-cut. The figures certainly don’t convincingly support the theory….
The table below shows the percentage of opponents beaten by horses starting in individual stalls in the Chester Cup over the last 18 editions of the race….
Horses emerging from stall 7 top the list – having beaten 65.1% of their opponents….
On the face of it, that might be taken as support for the theory that the draw doesn’t matter so much over the 2m2f trip. But I’m not so sure….
Stalls 2, 3, 4 & 5 also make it into the top 7 places. Whilst stalls 10, 12, 14, 16 and 17 languish in the bottom 7 – with horses racing out of those stalls having beaten less than 50% of the opposition….
There are anomalies. Like stall 15 bagging a top 4 position. And the relatively poor record of horses coming out of stall 1. But nothing is straightforward in racing. Nothing is ever neatly sliced and diced like a restaurant salad….
Instead of absolute clarity, we racing punters must often make do with overall impressions….
And the overall impression I get from the figures in the table above is that a low draw is more advantageous than a high draw in the Chester Cup – despite the 2m2f trip….
Andrew Balding has a cracking record at the Roodeye. His last 349 runners at the track (since 2012) produced 75 winners. That’s a strike-rate of 21.5%....
Jockey David Probert likes the place too. A 15% strike rate doesn’t get him a Grade A – but he’s certainly up there with the B-stream….
And 34 winners from 215 qualifying rides is a sight better return than many of his weighing-room counterparts have produced…..
In tandem with Balding, Probert’s figures at the track improve to 29 wins from 142 rides @ 20.4%. In combination with Balding in handicaps races, his figures improve again to 21 wins from 89 rides @ 23.6%....
Those are Grade A figures and the pair get an opportunity to polish the diamond again tomorrow with NATE THE GREAT in the Chester Cup at 2.45….
There are quite a few older and exposed types in tomorrow’s race. Nate The Great on the other hand is just 5 and yet to show his full hand over these kinds of extreme trips on turf….
That said in the few opportunities he’s had at the longer trips to date (mainly on the AW) he’s proved he stays and – along with a few of tomorrow’s opponents – he prepped for this race in the Queen’s Cup up at Musselburgh where he was 4th of the 13 runners and beaten just over 2-lengths….
That 14f trip – which might stretch some horses – isn’t far enough for Balding’s charge and tomorrow’s set-up will play much more to his strengths. This will only be his 4th run for Andrew Balding on turf and it’s odds against we’ve seen the best of him yet….
You could make the case that he’s best on a firm surface. But much of the evidence for that argument harks back to his juvenile displays and I’m mindful he ran a good race on soft ground behind subsequent Derby winner Anthony Van Dyke in the Lingfield Derby Trial as a 3yo – when trained by Archie Watson….
There’s not a huge amount of rain forecast over the next 24 hours – more isolated showers than torrential downpours – and with periods of sunshine on the cards I’d expect the good to soft ground to dry out a bit rather than get worse….
I think he can run a big race and the 12s this morning is plenty acceptable….
Each-way punters take note: Sky Bet and William Hill are paying 1/5 the odds on the first 6 home. You can get 1/5 on the first 5 generally. Several firms are up at ¼ the odds – but only on the first 4 home….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Chester Cup (2.45 @ Chester).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on Saturday’s Victoria Cup at Ascot. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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