Friday, 7th May 2021
First things first: the Chester Cup is run this afternoon at 2,45. If you’re new to ATC, you’ll find my selection for the race here in the ATC archive….
The focus today is on tomorrow’s Victoria Cup at Ascot (3.40) – a C2 handicap event for horses aged 4yo+ that is run up the 7f straight….
Regular readers will know that I like races with idiosyncratic features….
…. races that present horse and jockey with a singular challenge; an unusual circumstance to overcome; or some unorthodox condition to deal with….
Such races offer punters like me opportunities to search for betting value using angles that wouldn’t apply (or even have relevance) in more conventional contests....
The unusual feature of tomorrow’s race is the huge field – 29 runners go to post….
It’s not a unique feature. But it’s certainly not standard either. And ahead of making picks, one thing I want to know is whether or not the draw has any pronounced effect in such well-contested races at Ascot….
To find out, I studied the last 27 handicap races run up the Ascot straight over 7f or a mile (with 24+ runners) – to determine the performance of horses running out of individual stalls. The table below illustrates my findings….
The stalls of most interest are those from which horses have beaten more than 50% of opponents….
There are 12 such stalls – 10 of those are numbered 18 or bigger. On the basis of these figures, I’d say stalls 18+ are where the most advantaged horses will start tomorrow afternoon in the Victoria Cup….
My preferred way of playing the big field handicaps is to go two-against-the-field – win only….
I’m not big on each-way backing unless I’m getting on at a really big price. I prefer to push the boat out and have multiple horses going for the win….
That’s what I do. What you do is your call….
If you are playing each-way be aware that Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 7 finishers. Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill and Boylesports are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6 home. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally….
These big handicaps are as complex and as confusing as you want to make them. If or where I can, I like to keep it simple….
I’m going to go with my stats and assume that what has been true in recent times will hold firm tomorrow – the horses drawn highest will have an advantage over those drawn lowest….
That being so, I’m going to go with David O’Meara’s ESCOBAR out of stall 25 with Richard Kingscote up – at the general 14s….
He hasn’t won since the tail end of the 2019 season when he won the Balmoral at Ascot – a victory that took him up to 111 on the official rating scale….
You’re not going to win too many handicaps off that kind of mark and last season he was pretty much campaigned in Group races – where he was out of his depth….
The upside is that his losing sequence has seen him drop back down the ratings to a mark of 103 – 2lbs lower than his last winning rating – and he’s very much back in business in handicaps again off that mark. His comeback at Haydock was good enough and he’ll come on for that….
You could argue that he’s better at the mile than the 7f – but I’m not so sure. The last two times he’s taken in a big-field handicap over tomorrow’s course and distance he ran with plenty of credit and I see him going well again tomorrow for a yard that’s hit a bit of form lately after a slow start to the season….
If Escobar represents the older guard – 7 seems old on the flat but, to put it into perspective, over jumps he’d still be considered a sprightly youngster with his best days ahead of him – then SYMBOLIZE represents the up-and-coming horses….
Andrew Balding’s 4yo came up against a likely Group horse last month at Newmarket on his seasonal debut – giving weight away too – and found him too good….
He won’t always run into such a well-handicapped horse and given that he got closer than any other horse in the race we can tentatively assume that a close-season gelding operation hasn’t slowed him down. Indeed, it may well have improved him….
He didn’t manage to win during his 3yo season. Indeed, he hasn’t managed to win since his debut as a juvenile. But the handicapper hasn’t relented much….
Symbolize was rated 102 at the start of last season – thanks to a good showing in the 2019 G2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood – and he’s rated 103 now some seven defeats further down the road….
The handicapper’s unwillingness to drop the horse is interesting. He must believe his original assessment was on the money and that the horse should be competitive off his current mark….
I see where he’s coming from. The Newmarket run was promising. He’s well-drawn tomorrow and his yard is going well right now. It’s a good time for the horse to vindicate both the official handicapper and my decision to back him. The 16s is fair enough….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Victoria Cup (3.40 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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