Wednesday, 12th May 2021
York’s Dante meeting starts this afternoon. The card kicks off with two big handicaps. You can find my contrarian picks for those races here….
We’re always a little ahead of the game here at ATC and today the focus is on the two handicaps run on Day 2 of the meeting (tomorrow)….
At 1.40, there’s the C2 Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap for horses aged 4yo+ and rated 0 to 105 over the straight 5f trip. A field of 18 goes to post….
At 2.40, 15 horses are slated to leave the stalls for the C2 Matchbook Betting Podcast Hambleton Handicap for horses 4yo+ over the turning mile….
I’ll get to my picks in those races shortly. First, an observation from last week’s Chester meeting….
Yesterday I highlighted Kynren’s return to form and his dangerous mark. Today, I want to draw attention to the horse that finished directly in front of him at Chester – the Charlie Hills trained Dulas….
The 7yo Kynren is what I refer to privately as a ‘bouncer’ in that he’s been up, he’s dropped back down and he is now poised to rise again….
The 4yo Dulas is a different kettle of fish. He’s a younger horse, he’s a less experienced horse and he’s a horse yet to hit his first peak. He’s a horse on his initial ascent up the curve. He’s an out-and-out ‘riser’….
The interesting thing about him is that he’s rated 83 at this moment in time – but would be rated so much higher had he not found one too good on each of his runs to date this term….
At Haydock in April, he ran into stablemate Persuasion (rated 93 and now up to 96) and got beat 0.5 lengths….
At Chester last week, he ran into Andrew Balding’s Grove Ferry (was 97 and is now 101) and got beat 0.75 lengths….
Both runs – his first goes at C2 level – are a big improvement on what he produced as a 3yo. A close-season gelding operation appears to have benefitted the horse….
The bottom-line observation is this: on a lowly mark of 83 this horse is progressive and can be placed to win in the weeks ahead. He can be dropped back down in class to find a suitable target. And might yet prove dangerous at the bottom end of the weights in a big C2….
It will be interesting (and instructive) to observe how Charlie Hills goes about capitalising on this horse’s mark this term. Whatever the horse does, I suspect he will at some point be winning money for connections….
ATC Watch List horse Copper Knight has obvious claims in this one – he’s down to a very winnable mark, at Chester last week he looked like a horse coming to hand, and he has plenty of form in the book at York. But the market has clocked him good and proper. I can’t be putting him up at 6s….
There are quite a few that I couldn’t back given what they’ve shown to date this season. An exception is Antony Brittain’s MONDAMMEJ who has only had two runs to date on the turf but gives the impression he can climb beyond his current mark of 86….
He won nicely in a C2 at Pontefract in April – a win for which he was put up 7lbs. Last week in another C2 at Chester he disappointed on the face of it – finishing 6th of 9 and beaten 3.5 lengths….
But from a handy low berth in stall 2, he missed the start and had to be rousted along – which lit him up. He never settled in the early stages for Cam Hardie and he was unbalanced on the bend to boot. Not his day….
This 4yo is a proper fizz bomb and he’s been a bit of a handful. He’s gotten loose before a race, he’s been described as unruly, he’s played up in the stalls, he’s been reluctant to load and he’s missed the break. But the team are getting to the bottom of him – and he’s got talent. A first go in a proper big field might just help him settle….
He’s one of those horses in the race that could take a big step forward and at 14s he’s a worth a bet….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet and William Hill are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6 home. You can get 1/5 the first 5 places and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
KYNREN ran an absolute cracker last week at Chester from a nightmare outside draw….
Jockey Connor Beasley dropped him in and he was still out the back turning in for home. But he fairly powered up the short straight to finish a closing 3rd and he gave the impression he’d come on mightily for his seasonal debut at Doncaster….
A couple of seasons back he was hitting the frame in top big-field handicap after top big-field handicap – rising from a mark of 93 to 107 in the process. Then he hit the wall and the 2020 season was a disappointment….
Now he’s back down to a mark of 98. That’s certainly a mark that puts him back in business and he can build again on that Chester run tomorrow on a track where he’s run three big races in top big-field handicaps off not dissimilar marks….
I expect a big run from this 7yo tomorrow and the 12s is acceptable….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 5 home. You can get 1/5 the first 4 places and 1/4 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap (1.40 @ York).
In the Hambleton Handicap (2.40 @ York).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my selections for Day 3 at York. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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