Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow....

Friday, 28th May 2021

Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow….

With the Dash, the Oaks, and the Derby among the treats on offer at Epsom next week….

…. and with the 5-day blue riband extravaganza that is Royal Ascot not so very far behind that meeting….

…. we’ve got loads of quality betting action to look forward to….

So, it’s only natural – ahead of the storm – that we have a period of calm to negotiate. That’s the case this week….

From a betting perspective, I’m really only interested in one race tomorrow – that’s the tote+ Pays You More At tote.co.uk Handicap at Chester (2.40)….

It’s a C2 race around the three tight bends of the extended 7f trip and I want to take on the most heavily fancied horses with a dangerous runner up at a nice price….

I’ll get to my selection shortly. First, a word about a horse on my Watch List….

• Copper Knight....

Copper Knight has already justified my decision to nominate him as a horse to follow after his seasonal debut at Musselburgh– producing a winning display in the big 5f handicap at York’s May meeting….

I didn’t back him on the day on account of his price – he was 11/2 joint favourite. Sometimes the whole world can see what you see….

But a win is a win. And with the 7yo having produced the win, I might have taken him off the Watch List – taking the view that his job was done….

I often do that with the Watch List horses that win. And given that Copper Knight got beaten when out again at York last week, you might argue the point that I should have done just that….

But I didn’t. I haven’t. And I won’t be doing so just yet. Copper Knight won off 85 at York and got raised 5lb for his trouble. But that rise nowhere near puts the tin lid on a horse rated 106 as recently as last June….

The fact that he ran off 90 at York last week and got beat might lead some punters to connect the two dots and draw a line. That would be a mistake….

On marks of 87 to 95, Copper Knight’s struck in handicaps four times. So, right now, he’s very much in the red zone and liable to go in again when the chips fall correctly….

There may be defeats, close shaves and stinkers in between times. After all, handicappers aren’t precision tools….

But when you’ve got a fit horse that’s going well and is perched in the right area on the official scale, you’re looking at a horse that can land a pot – and a punt. And that’s a horse worth keeping onside….

Hence, Copper Knight stays on the Watch List. He can go in again at some point this term – hopefully at a better price than he was sent off at York….

Back now to that Chester race….

• My contrarian pick....

You can see where the market’s coming from with the two horses that are competing for favouritism this morning….

Another Batt won off 90 last time out and has won in the past off bigger marks than the 95 he races off tomorrow. He’s got form at Chester too….

Ejtilaab returns to the track after figuring last time out in a race that’s already produced multiple next time out winners – and he’s got the plum draw in stall 1 under top course jockey Richard Kingscote….

I wouldn’t be the man to put you off either horse. But my job is not to regurgitate what the market is already telling you. My role – albeit self-imposed – is to root out something that’s overlooked and can run a big race at a bigger price….

The one I like for this one is KING’S KNIGHT – up at 9s this morning….

With the exception of one misfire on heavy ground at Newmarket at the back-end of last term, Charlie Hill’s 4yo has been progressive race-to-race in his 7 career starts to date….

He won a C4 first-time-up this term at Lingfield on the AW. Then he stepped up markedly in class last time at Goodwood where he found one too good on the day off a mark of 84….

He’s gone up 6lbs in defeat to a mark of 90. That’s a curse. But I reckon there’s more to come from this one….

It’s interesting that last time off 84, Hills opted for the 3lb claimer. This time (off a higher rating and with more weight on his back) he opts for the services of a division one jockey in Jim Crowley – no stranger to the yard – for a first time go on the horse….

King’s Knight ran a bit keen at Goodwood. That didn’t help him. But he only got beat close to home. Maybe he required that first go at C2 level just to acclimatise to the heat of the cauldron. He can go one better this time and rates a bet at the general 9s….

• The final word….

That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back on Tuesday. Meanwhile….

Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd