Friday, 18th June 2021
The big-field handicap game will test you – that’s for sure….
It will test your knowledge, your methodology, your tactics, your mettle, your patience, and your temperament….
Sometimes it will feel like the dice are loaded against you – that the game has been devised and calibrated to mess with your head….
On Saturday at York I was on Blackrod in a field of 17. Nobody fancied him. Nobody else – at least nobody that I’m aware of – made a case for him. He ran a blinder – sent off at 18s – improved considerably but manged to find one too good whilst closing strong….
Yesterday at Ascot in the Britannia I was on Liffey River in a field of 29. Nobody fancied him. Nobody else – at least nobody I’m aware of – made a case for him. He ran a blinder – sent off at 22s – improved beyond all known form but managed to find one too good whilst closing strong….
Give either horse another 25 or 30 yards of track and both would be winning picks straight out of the top drawer. As it is – both horses go down in the record as losers….
It’s a tough game – governed by small margins. You can be right about so much – but ultimately wrong. You can get your analysis of the race and the horses running in it almost spot-on and yet still have zero to show for it….
It’s not the first time, of course. It won’t be the last either. I know you’ll have been there yourself on occasions. Twice in the space of a week is tough to take. But there you go….
We pick ourselves up, we dust ourselves down and we go again – because there is no other way to go but forward….
The rains came overnight. The going is soft for Day 4 of the meeting – get my selections here….
Tomorrow is the final day and there’s just one race for me – the Wokingham over the straight 6f. Let’s get to it….
MR LUPTON is an absolute crackerjack of a horse – one of those that was never quite top notch and always at the top of the rankings for the big handicaps as a result….
Being one of those in-between horses hasn’t stopped him banking a considerable sum of prize money for connections though. He’s 8 now – but the fire still burns bright as he showed when winning another handicap at York last time off 101….
He’s up 4lbs for that and – having been beaten in this race twice before – you could make the case that he’ll find this assignment beyond him tomorrow….
But the ground has come in his favour and the one good race he’s run at Ascot came on the one occasion when he got soft ground. He’s clearly in good heart, he starts from the right place in a high stall and he could still be rolling on tomorrow when plenty of these horses that need genuine ground have had enough….
At the general 28s and 25s I am happy to swing the bat and back the old boy for glory in his autumnal years….
The other one I’m backing is Eve Johnson Houghton’s PUNCHBOWL FLYER at 18s and 16s….
He’s in form, he’s going to love the ground, he’s on the right side of the draw and he’ll put it up to them. He’s just a nice price given the boxes he ticks….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet & Paddy Power are paying out 1/5 on the first 7 home. You can get 1/5 the first 6 with multiple firms….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Wokingham Stakes (5.00 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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