Friday, 25th June 2021
It is probably fair to say that Joseph O’Brien’s GRANDMASTER FLASH disappointed in the Chester Plate last month….
He wasn’t unfancied – sent off at 8s under Ryan Moore – but he ended up 9th of the 13 runners and beaten 10.5 lengths over the extended 2m2f trip. You can make excuses – if you were so minded….
It was his first go off a bit of a break…. The ground was softer than ideal…. He was only beaten late on…. Maybe the trip was just beyond him…. He got hampered early doors….
There might be some mileage in each of those assertions. You might also contend that the horse is not as good on turf as he is on the AW. And there is definitely some ballast in that argument….
The 5yo is 0 from 10 goes on turf compared to 3 wins from 11 on synthetic surfaces. And the distinction is clearly expressed in the horse’s two official marks – 96 on the AW compared to just 87 on turf….
The horse turned up at Chester having regained some form on the AW earlier in the year – the result of being fitted with a combination of first-time tongue-tie and cheekpieces….
You might even say that the headgear had improved him – enabling him to produce a brace of wins at Dundalk over 2m and 12f (sharp enough for him) but without registering any new career ‘top’….
My take is that Ireland’s sole raider in tomorrow’s Northumberland Plate up at Newcastle (3.30) will improve again. The headgear combination is retained; there’s no doubt this horse gets tomorrow’s trip; he’ll be happier on a synthetic surface than he was on turf; Dylan Browne McMonagle takes off a useful 3lbs; and he’s got a fair draw in stall 8….
I like his chances and the general 12s about the horse is fair enough….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet, William Hill & Unibet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6 home. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Northumberland Plate (3.30 @ Newcastle).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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