Friday, 2nd July 2021
Sir Michael Stoute has a reasonable record with the runners he sends up to Haydock – his overall strike rate at the track runs at a smidge shy of 20% across the last decade….
If I were a betting man, I’d have a few quid on that track record improving over the next couple of seasons – on account of Stoute’s deepening relationship with Richard Kingscote….
Kingscote – still best known for his exploits in partnership with Tom Dascombe – is taking more rides for Stoute these days. Few – if any – jockeys ride Haydock to better effect. Stoute and his runners there will benefit from the ongoing association….
Trainer and rider went close in last season’s Old Newton Cup at the track – when the heavily-fancied Laffy found just the winner too good on the day….
The 4yo turned out that afternoon having gone up 9lb to a mark of 98 for a handicap win at Newbury – and it likely blunted his edge at the weights and contributed to his defeat….
Stoute’s representative in tomorrow’s renewal of the valuable 12f handicap (3.15) – MY FRANKEL – is already rated higher than Laafy was despite having done considerably less work on turf….
But this 4yo gives the distinct impression there’s more to come yet and he rates a bet for me tomorrow at the 14s (in places) and the general 12s….
He got off the mark for the season on his first attempt in a handicap at Kempton; went up 7lbs to a mark of 101; and then turned out for what was just his 4th spin on turf at York’s May meeting in the 12f handicap designated a qualifier for the Ebor….
Connections felt the handicapper’s post-Kempton actions had been fair enough. They certainly weren’t making any negative noises. And, in the immediate build up to the race, I got the impression that expectation was far from exhausted….
The market took a positive view too. My Frankel was fancied enough for the York assignment – backed in to 6s at the off….
But it didn’t pan out. The horse produced a disappointing performance – one for which Stoute’s on-track representative could offer the stewards no explanation and one for which the on-duty veterinary officer could find no obvious cause….
Of course, horses are living creatures made of blood, bone, flesh, and gristle. They are not precision-made Swiss watches. They don’t run on a rail. Things go wrong – on the horse, in the saddle, and in the race. Horses have off-days like humans. Sometimes things need to be put right….
Who knows why the horse misfired? But it certainly wasn’t his true showing that day at York and 52-days later – during which I assume he’s had rest and whatever work and/or re-tweaking he required – I’m prepared to give him the benefit of any doubt….
He’s as patently unexposed on turf as any of the fancied 4yos – but available at a nice price. The jockey is a big plus. The yard’s in good fettle – and I’m mindful that six of Stoute’s 10 runners in this race across the last 20-years (a race that always attracts a big field) finished in the first six. I expect a decent run for my money….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill and Sky Bet are offering 1/5 the odds on the first 6 home. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally. Ditto 1/4 the first 4.
In the Coral Challenge at Sandown (2.25), I’m sticking with BEAT LE BON – a horse I placed on my Watch List ahead of Royal Ascot….
He’s produced three decent efforts from his last four goes – without managing to land a win. Indeed, if you take literally the distances he finished behind the winners of those races, you might conclude that he’s slightly off the boil….
But that would be a mistake. At Newmarket in April he did best of those that raced off the pace. It was the same story at Doncaster. And at Ascot he ran a cracker on the disadvantaged side of the track….
I had hoped he might go down a pound or two to Ascot – but the handicapper hasn’t played ball and the horse is back up to 104….
But he has won a big handicap off that mark before – and he’s back in a vein of form. This stiff mile at Sandown will suit – he’ll stay it as well as anything that goes to post with him tomorrow and he’s a nice price at 16s and 14s….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill, Sky Bet & Paddy Power are offering 1/5 the odds on the first 5 home. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally.
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Old Newton Cup (3.15 @ Haydock).
In the Coral Challenge (2.25 @ Sandown).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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