Friday, 9th July 2021
Today is Day 2 of Newmarket’s July meeting….
If you missed my selections for this afternoon’s big handicaps, catch up here….
My focus is already on tomorrow – which represents something of a ‘Super Saturday’ with big handicaps at Newmarket, York, and Ascot….
I’m always 24 hours ahead of the game – in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about ‘live’ contenders the market is overlooking, underestimating or just plain wrong about….
Let’s get down to it….
You have to go all the way back to 1987 to find a horse that won the Bunbury Cup under a penalty – and that’s a stat that stands strong against three of the top four in the betting this morning….
Not that’d I’d be backing those fancied horses anyway. My self-imposed role is not to regurgitate what the market is already telling you. My role is to highlight a horse the market might be missing at the prices….
For this race that horse might well be Andrew Balding’s SYMBOLIZE at the general 12s….
I put the 4yo up for the Victoria Cup in May at Ascot – where a lost fore shoe did nothing to aide his cause….
Back at that track for the Buckingham Place Stakes at the Royal meeting, he found himself on the wrong side. He was 7th of the 28 overall – and 2nd in his far side group. It was fair run under the circumstances. He’s due to drop 2lb in the rankings, but he continues to give the impression there’s a handicap pot in him off his current mark….
Oisin Murphy replaces David Probert tomorrow to take a first time ride on the horse; the pair are drawn nicely in stall 16 and they’re in and around a bit of pace that will serve to take them into the race; and the Balding yard is going as well as any right now….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill and Sky Bet are both paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6 home. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
I’m sticking with Andrew Balding and backing his JOHNNY DRAMA at the general 18s & 20s….
At 6 he’s a little older than would ordinarily be ideal for this race – but having had only 13 goes on turf he’s nowhere near as exposed as other horses his age might be….
His turf season was curtailed last year after a couple of poor performances but he proved a revelation on the AW over the winter after a wind-op and the application of a tongue tie – winning four times and rising 19lbs up the AW official rankings….
He’s rated 107 on the AW right now and just 98 for his first run on turf in 12-months. The market is giving all the credit for his winter improvement to artificial surfaces. But the wind-op might well have played a more significant role than commonly thought – if so, he could be handily weighted off 98. He arrives off a break and he might well have been plotted-up for this….
He’s got form at York; he handles a surface with a bit of cut; and he can make the running if necessary – which is a benefit from his draw in stall 1. He stays 12f, so the quicker he can get them going early on the better for him in the later stages….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are both paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 7 home. You can get 1/5 the first 6; 1/5 the first 5; and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
I get where the market is coming from with Karl Burke’s Significantly. A schoolboy could figure out why he tops the betting at 11/2 this morning….
He’s produced significant improvement on turf this term – producing new ‘tops’ on each of his last three runs. And last time at Royal Ascot (tomorrow’s track and trip) he beat a whole load of other 3yos to win the Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes – a victory for which he’s been raised just 4lbs….
On the flip side of the coin, he only just prevailed that day on outright heavy ground – and from the right side of the draw. This will be tougher. He’s up against older horses. I can see why he’s fancied. But he’s short enough for me….
I’m going to swing the bat at Robert Cowell’s ALJADY in this one – up this morning at 20s….
When Cowell inherited this sprinter from Richard Fahey ahead of the start of last season, he did what he often does and ran up a series of wins with his new sprint-based recruit. The horse rose from 88 to 107 in the ratings….
It’s been downhill from there – with the horse too high in the handicap to get competitive and not quite good enough to compete on level terms at Listed and Group class….
He’s down to a mark of 98 now – a rating he can certainly win from. He saw money ahead of the Gosforth Park Cup at Newcastle a fortnight back – but disappointed on an artificial surface that might not be ideal for him. He’s gone well at Ascot before and he might just be on the nail tomorrow….
He’s on the low side of the draw. That might not be ideal. But there’s plenty of pace on that side and the high numbers didn’t have it all their own way up the straight at the Royal meeting….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6 home. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Bunbury Cup (3.50 @ Newmarket).
In the John Smith’s Cup (4.05 @ York).
In the Betfred Heritage Handicap (3.35 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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