Thursday, 15th July 2021
Rajinsky is a funny horse – in that he’s difficult to weigh up right now. At least that’s how I see it….
Since the start of last season (which began in June), Tom Dascombe’s stayer has raced a dozen times – but managed to win just the once….
That was in a 3-runner affair at Ripon in April this year….
Rajinsky’s consolidated form figures across his last dozen races read: 3722290/41236….
Just the one win – but he’s managed to finish either 2nd or 3rd six times. You can read that code a number of ways….
You might say he’s gone well in defeat. Or that he’s not good enough at the level he’s raced at. Or that he’s sitting too high on the handicap scale….
You might say he’s been unlucky. Or that he’s developed the questionable habit of finding one or two too good….
Had you been backing him to win – and doing your nuts – you might dispense with the sugar-coating….
You might come right out and accuse the horse of not wanting to prove himself a leader when push comes to shove….
The details in the record could be easily bent to fit whichever argument finds your favour. What interests me is that the horse started this season on a mark of 92….
He didn’t light up the track on seasonal return at Wolverhampton – but he came on for it sufficiently to win the race at Ripon over 2m….
Then he went to Haydock (proving he handles a deep surface as well as a quick one) and produced a career-best on the RPR scale in another 2m affair – getting caught by the winner close to home and going down a length….
Then he went up to Newcastle for a tilt at the Northumberland Plate. He was 4th past the post – but got promoted to 3rd having been badly hampered in the closing stages. He wasn’t finished at that point. He was still battling away….
The interference – which halted his momentum at a point where he’d no time to recover – occurred just as fast-finishing winner Nicholas T swept by on his inside. He never got a chance to go with that one or put it up to him….
He got beaten 3-lengths. With more luck in-running he’d have been closer. That’s for certain….
Would he have won? Tom Dascombe says his charge would have gone close. I’m not inclined to outright disagree with that assessment having watched the race repeatedly….
Next up – last week – Rajinsky contested the bet365 Trophy at Newmarket. He finished 6th of 15 – beaten 5.25 lengths over a 14f trip which is on the short side for a horse at his best over 2m. He ran on well – without troubling the principals….
This morning – with all the new information provided by the horse’s five runs to date this term – the horse is still rated 92….
You might look at Rajinsky’s recent series of go-close defeats and figure that the horse is a little too high in the handicap….
And you might figure that the handicapper has been hard on the horse in refusing to drop him down the ratings – to give him a fairer shake….
I imagine connections wouldn’t mind having a couple of pounds shaved off his mark. He’s been running in open handicaps and handicaps for horses rated up to 105. On a mark of 90 or lower he’d qualify for access to much easier options….
But the handicapper has proven reluctant to comply. And I can see why. Rather than being rated too high, I take the view that Rajinsky is underrated on a mark of 92….
He got put up 2lb to 93 (he was rated 91 at the time) for the 2nd place finish at Haydock – behind Frankenstella who was rated 83 at the time. He was giving her 9lb. On the face of it, the form of that race hasn’t worked out….
But the winner ran well next time out under a penalty in a race that wasn’t run to suit at Carlisle. Had the early pace that day been faster, Frankenstella might well have produced back-to-back wins….
Had that happened, Rajinsky’s performance at Haydock – produced whilst conceding a decent chunk of weight to a clearly progressive horse – would have a bit more shine to it. A 2lb rise might be seen positively in that more flattering context….
And up at Newcastle Rajinsky was as competitive as anything in the race. His performance was enough to suggest – to me at least – that he’s up to winning at that level off his current mark….
If things had gone differently that day – let’s say for sake of argument that Rajinsky wasn’t badly hampered in the closing stages of the race and that Nicholas T had met trouble in-running instead – there’s a good chance Rajinsky wouldn’t be rated a fair bit higher than 92 this morning….
Racing – like so much else – boils down to money. So, let’s look at Rajinsky’s season from that perspective….
In his last four races Rajinsky’s banked prize money worth £36k+. In other words, he’s earned his fair share. He’s paid his way. He’s not let anybody down. He’s not been coming home penniless….
I’ve seen horses – plenty of them – earn a lot less than that on the track and go up the rankings a lot more….
After producing a sequence of runs containing more commendable efforts than not, the 5yo is still rated just 92. That’s surely got to be considered bonus by connections rather than as unfathomable recalcitrance on the part of the official handicapper?
The horse is clearly competitive off 92 and marks a pound or two either side. You don’t earn £36k in big handicaps unless you’re competitive. Fluking that kind of bottom-line outcome isn’t commonplace….
And he might have won more money still. He might have won at Haydock on another day. He might have won at Newcastle with a bit more good fortune at a key moment in the race….
But might is not the same thing as did. Might is not conclusive. It’s only a potential….
And that’s a problem the official handicapper might have had with this horse. He can’t raise reasonably raise the horse on what might have been or what could have happened. And that leaves the horse more fairly treated this morning than he might otherwise be ….
Rajinsky is earning good money. And under slightly different circumstances he’d have forced the handicapper’s hand in the other direction….
The bottom line is this: he can win a decent pot off 92 – if or when things fall right for him….
He’ll no doubt have another couple of bites at the cherry this term. There are no guarantees though. Being on a good mark is one thing. Putting it all together and capitalizing on a big race day is something else again. But the potential is very much there….
Truth is it could just as easily be next season as this when Rajinsky confirms what I and the official handicapper believe – and earns a higher rating. Patience is as much a part of this game as any other. His time will come….
He can win off 92 and anything shaved off in the meanwhile only assists his cause. That’s my take on the horse….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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