Monday, 19th July 2021
The 5-day Glorious Goodwood meeting gets underway on Tuesday, 27th July….
That’s just over a week away. No time at all….
There are multiple big handicaps run at the meeting. I’ll be betting in them all and I need to devote time to getting a read on them – individually and collectively….
I’m already engaged in that process. And where my grey matter is focused, this column follows….
The one race I’ll be devoting special attention to in the build-up is the Stewards Cup – the race you really want to win if you’ve got a top-level 6f handicapper on your hands….
…. more than the Wokingham at Royal Ascot…. more than the Ayr Gold Cup…. the other two handicap 6f handicap sprints that offer a six-figure prize money to winning connections….
Trainers with a likely type in the yard are always going to want to win a race that carries massive prestige, and which has been a component part of the British racing summer since 1840….
I can’t remember what I backed that afternoon. Or how many went to post. But you should expect a maximum field of 28 to go to post a week on Saturday….
Then all you’ve got to do is figure out which you want to back at the prices….
My first port of call with these big handicaps is almost always the historic record – the stats related to previous renewals of the race....
Of course, stats don’t win big handicap races. Well-treated horses do. But the stats are a useful aide nonetheless....
They offer a useful and informative starting point for your analysis – an initial route into a race. That’s how I use the stats – as a starting point. No more. No less....
The statistical record can tell you a great deal about the type of horse that tends to win a specific contest and why....
The statistical record can point you to horses of interest that are worthy of further and more detailed investigation....
The statistical record can help you reduce a big field to a shortlist of qualified types....
Bottom line: the statistical record is a good place to start. That said there are few hard and fast rules to rely on in racing. Long-term readers will know as much....
Cling too tightly to any one stat or trend, and you run the risk of being undone by Sod’s Law – which was written specifically to undermine punter-complacency....
But we can use what has gone before to build an outline picture.... to weigh the balances.... to understand the nature of the percentages and how they have played out....
Prize money was down across the board last year – poor old Summerghand took home just £46k for his Stewards Cup win….
But it is well worth noting that the prize money for the race doubled in 2015 – to £155k for the winner. That succeeded in attracting better quality animals into the race….
While we’re not quite back to those prize money levels this time around – the winner takes home £115k – and it’s no surprise we’ve got seven horses rated 105 or bigger with entries int the race….
Each of the six winners since 2015 was rated 102+. Go back further and you find nine of the last 10 winners of the race had a 3-figure official rating....
Horses officially rated in the 90s are finding it harder in this race….
There were plenty horses rated in the 90s in the 2018 edition of the race. But five of the first seven home were 100+ rated horses. That was from a total representation of just nine from the 26 runner-field....
It was a similar story in 2020. A field of 27 horses went to post. More than half the field (14 horses) were officially rated in the 90s. But six of the first eight home went to post with a three-figure rating….
Last year the trend broke to some degree. Summerghand was rated 108. But the next four home were rated in the 90s….
Did that have something to do with the depleted prize money? Will the increased prize money this year see a return to the previous trend?
We don’t know. These are imponderables to be thought through and figured out as and when we have more information to hand….
My feeling is that the bigger prize pout this year will see a return to business as usual. And in that scenario the percentage play would be to expect the 3-figure rated horses to go best again….
Some stats can be a bit misleading. It pays you to know when that’s the case….
For example, I guarantee that at some point ahead of this race you’re going to read or hear that the 4yos and the 5yos are the horses you want to be with….
And whoever gives you that advice will do so based on weight of numbers. You will be told that 4yo and 5yo runners have won twelve of the last 19 renewals….
It’s not a lie. It’s not an exaggeration. It’s not a miscalculation. It’s perfectly true….
But as betting advice goes it isn’t worth a carrot – because the 4yo and the 5yo horses have provided such a large proportion of the runners over the last 19-years….
The 4yo and 5yo runners have produced volume in terms of winners and placers. Certainly, more than the other age groups. But no more than chance says they are entitled to….
The table below tells a more meaningful story. It reveals that there is little or no evidence to suggest that any age-group has established a dominance in the race….
Horses aged 3 and 4 have held their own and produced pretty much what you would expect in terms of total places over the 19-year test period. Impact values of 1.0 or close to 1.0 tell you that much….
The older horses (7+) are a little off the pace, but it wouldn’t take much to bring those figures back to par either….
If there is a favoured group then it is the horses aged 5 and 6 – who (as groups) place about 20% more often than chance says they ought to….
My advice? Don’t make the mistake of splitting the field on the basis of a volume-based age stat. A horse of almost any age can go well in this Goodwood feature….
Just one horse in 19-years has managed to win this race having not been seen on the track during the last 8-weeks. And that makes sense….
This is the hottest 6f handicap of the year. The best handicappers show up. For some this is the race their entire season has been planned around. Plenty show up in hot form. It’s high standard. And competitive. It might be just that bit tough on a horse lacking match-sharpness and in need of a race....
One day, a horse will buck the trend. Trends are there to be smashed, after all. But, generally, a prep race is a plus....
There are other useful pointers to note....
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow with more. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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