Where my contrarian money is going on Day 3 at Glorious Goodwood....

Last Updated: 28.07.2021

Wednesday, 28th July 2021

Where my contrarian money is going on Day 3 at Glorious Goodwood….

On Day 1 at Glorious Goodwood things didn’t fall the right way for me….

Blue De Vega met trouble in running at a key point in the 5f sprint. Whether or not he’d have figured more closely without that interference is open to interpretation. But it certainly didn’t help….

That’s racing. More will against us than goes for us. That’s the reality. We move on. Today is Day 2. If you missed my bet for today, you can catch up here….

My focus is already on Day 3 (tomorrow). I’m always 24 hours ahead of the game – in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about ‘live’ contenders the market is overlooking, underestimating or just plain wrong about….

The track has dried out a little in the last 24-hours. The going this morning is described as soft. Isolated showers are forecast for today and for the rest of the week….

  • In the Kincsem Handicap....

There’s only one handicap that appeals as a betting heat on tomorrow afternoon’s card – the Kincsem Handicap at 1.50 for the 3yos over the 10f trip….

Only 12 go to post. That’s a little disappointing. But we work with what is put in front of us. Hopefully, they will all stand their ground. The drying track shortens the odds on that happening….

Mark Johnston has done very well over the years in the 3yo handicaps at this meeting. He’s got 5 of the 12 runners in tomorrow’s race – so he’s clearly hoping to add to his tally….

The conundrum for punters – as ever with Johnson – is which one to pick and which ones to avoid….

My preference is for QAADAR under William Buick – a top man around these Goodwood bends….

He’s been running consistent solid races over a mile this term but he’s been thought of a as a mile-and-a-quarter horse for some time and tomorrow he gets to strut his stuff at that trip for the first time.

He’s been staying on well at a mile and I suspect the extra 2-furlongs will enable him to take the next step forward. He caught the eye in the Britannia over a mile at Royal Ascot where he was 7th of the 29….

On the wrong side of the track he chased the pace in a contest that ultimately favoured horses travelling further back early doors. In the context of the race – one which has produced subsequent winners – it was a performance of some merit and one suggestive of more to come in more favourable circumstances….

One thing he has in his favour tomorrow is that – unlike most others in the race– he has experience of the idiosyncratic Goodwood track. More than that he’s proved he can act there – winning a race there (albeit a small field affair) back in April….

The presence of stablemate Naamoos in the field on an official mark of 107 means that Qaadar only has to carry 8-13. That might just be happenstance. But it might also be a bit of judicious strategizing on Johnston’s part. It’s the lowest weight the horse will have carried in a race to date….

You can back Mark Johnston’s horse at prices between 8s and 10s. Those prices aren’t massive – or a commonplace price for this column – but in the context of this race and the shape of the betting they are fair enough….

Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are offering 1/5 the odds on the first 5. You can get 1/4 the first 3 generally. Note: it’s still early days and additional deals will emerge as the day goes on….

Nick’s contrarian picks….

To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon….

In the Kincsem Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood).

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The final word….

That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….

Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd