Tuesday, 17th August 2021
JAWWAAL strikes as a good bet at 20s to take the opener on the first day at York (tomorrow) – the C2 Sky Bet & Symphony Group Handicap (1.50)….
He’s won twice this term – both times at Doncaster – and currently sits on a career-high mark of 99. But there’s more to come yet….
The second win at Doncaster represented a step forward. And the manner of the performance suggested he wasn’t running all-out. It was comfortable. He ran within himself – travelling well into the race….
Next time at Ascot a slow-pace scuppered him. You can draw a line through that. This horse needs pace to run at – and tomorrow’s big field will generate that feature aplenty….
And he’s dropped on with the draw. He’s in stall 21 of 22 – and there’s lots of early pace drawn middle to high. He’ll get a tow in to the race….
He’s a tricky ride though. He does very little if he hits the front too soon and needs holding on to right to the death. Exactly how David Probert rode him at Doncaster….
That ride earned Probert another go on the horse at Ascot. But he’s not onboard tomorrow. He’s riding a fancied one for Henry Candy instead – Twilight Calls. James Spencer gets the ride on Jawwaal….
Flick through the form book and you won’t find many instances of Spencer riding one for Michael Dods. But the veteran gets the gig tomorrow….
It could be a case of Spencer bagging a ‘spare ride’ – and no more. But – if that’s the case – it’s a potentially fortuitous coming together. If you were to compile a list of jockeys adept at timing a late run in a big-field then Spencer would surely credit an entry?
There’s a lot has to go right with this one. For sure. But this late mover is on the right part of the track tomorrow under a rider with a talent for timing his challenges and getting horses to arrive in the nick of time….
And – of course – Michael Dods knows how to get one ready for York. I’m expecting a big run….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 7. William Hill are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally.
They go over the extended 2m trip in the 4.10 on tomorrows card – the Sky Bet Handicap….
The bookmakers are cautious enough. They’ve got five up at 9s or shorter this morning – with the fresh horses contributing most to that number….
Further down the market, I’m going to give RAJINSKY another go at the general 16s….
I’m convinced he’s got a decent pot in him on his current mark of 91 and I’ve backed him accordingly – fruitlessly I should add – already this term….
But tomorrow is another day and Rajinsky is returning to the race in which he produced a career-best performance last year – finishing 2nd of 17 and beaten less than a length off 92….
Richard Kingscote recently relinquished his role with Tom Dascombe – to ride more frequently for Sir Michael Stoute. But he’s back on Rajinsky for Dascombe tomorrow – riding the horse for the first time since April….
It’s hard to know what to read into these things. Often, there is nothing to read at all. It just is what it is. But horse and order went close in tandem last year – and maybe this is a case of unfinished business…..
Whatever, the track suits, the August ground appeared to suit last year and he’s weighted to run a big one. There’s no reason why he can’t produce another big run in this race tomorrow. The 18s & 16s is fair enough….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally.
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Sky Bet & Symphony Group Handicap (1.50 @ York).
In the Sky Bet Handicap (4.10 @ York).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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