Wednesday, 18th August 2021
It’s Day 1 of the Ebor meeting up at York – and there are two big handicaps on the cards to get the meeting rolling….
If you missed my selections for those races, catch up here. My focus is already on the Day 2 card (tomorrow)….
I’m always 24 hours ahead of the game – in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about ‘live’ contenders the market is overlooking, underestimating or just plain wrong about….
Let’s crack on….
The Clipper Logistics Handicap (3.00) is the feature race for handicap punters on Day 2 of the Ebor meeting….
A maximum field of 20 goes to post to contest the race that’s run around York’s left-handed mile….
With Maydanny, La Trinidad, Magical Morning and Astro King all in the field, the bookies are naturally cautious. They anticipate money for all four and have each priced up at just 7s and 15/2 this morning….
I guess most punters will spend this evening trying to figure out which of that quartet is best-placed to rule the roost tomorrow. But not me….
I’m a contrarian. I never back the fancied horses. I always oppose them. When I look at a big-field handicap my job is to find an underestimated contender at a price – and not to simply follow the market consensus….
The one that stands out tomorrow as a bet for me is the Charles Hills-trained BAASHIR at the general 14s….
He’s done nothing wrong this term. He’s progressed; he’s won twice from five goes (one of those wins coming at York) and he’s gone up the handicap to the tune of 15lbs and to a mark of 97….
I’d suggest there’s more to come yet. He won last time in ready fashion at Doncaster under a 6lb penalty – and he’s still very lightly raced with only seven runs on turf in the book. His big day is ahead of him rather than behind him….
Tomorrow’s step up in trip will suit. He was doing all his best work late on last time and stayed on very strong to see off a decent field. He can improve again for the extra yardage on the Knavesmire….
On the face of it he’s the second string for Shadwell. Jim Crowley rides Maydanny. But I don’t read too much into that kind of thing. They’re all here, we’re talking big-field handicaps and anything in decent form has a chance of winning….
Baashir has certainly been in form – and he’s a good bet at the price to go well tomorrow in what will be his first tilt at a proper handicap pot….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. William Hill are 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Clipper Logistics Handicap (3.00 @ York).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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