Friday, 3rd September 2021
Turn out is disappointing tomorrow afternoon….
The Old Borough Cup at Haydock attracted a final field of just 12….
For perspective, only 2 editions in the last 18 have seen a smaller group of horses got post….
Only 11 runners show up for the 7f handicap at Ascot – and just 10 for the Lavazza….
No matter. We must work with what is put in front of us. But it will be just the one bet for me tomorrow….
They number just a dozen in the Old Borough Cup (2.55 Haydock)….
But there’s a big spread of 22lbs between the top- and bottom-rated horses. Global Storm is rated 104 while Noble Masquerade is rated 82….
That last-named horse is improving – and possesses scope for more progression yet….
If there’s a horse lurking at the bottom of the weights – one that might still be some way ahead of the handicapper and which could prove dangerous to a more exposed weight-carrying rival – then that horse is Noble Masquerade….
But the layers and the market are on to it. Eve Johnson Houghton’s horse is up at 5s – and 2nd favourite behind the Godolphin runner…..
At the 10s AUTUMN WAR is the better bet at the prices – in my book….
He hasn’t won on turf since September 2018. But he’s put in a sequence of creditable races in defeat this term – finding just one too good in each of his last three….
Last time at Goodwood he showed he’s got the potential to rate better than his current mark of 88. He gave away lengths at the start but travelled nicely into the race and ran on as you’d like late on….
He was reeling the winner at the post and he certainly lost the race by less distance than he gave away with the tardy break from the stalls….
Martin Harley was on the horse for the first time at Goodwood. This time it will be David Probert – for the first time since banking back-to-back wins on the horse at Wolverhampton at the back end of last year….
Perhaps that means nothing. And it’s dangerous to speculate. But the return to a winning set-up is a positive in my book and I read the Probert booking as having some significance….
The lock hasn’t quite turned for this horse yet. But it’s a process of adjustment. And going back to Probert is an adjustment that might just get the job done….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 and 1/4 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Old Borough Cup (2.55 @ Haydock).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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