Thursday, 16th September 2021
Great Ambassador is ante-post favourite for Saturday’s Gold Cup at Ayr – up at 5s….
Trainer Ed Walker describes himself thus: ‘I’m as hopeful as you can be in such a tough race….’
And he tells punters this: ‘They shouldn't get the heavy rain which ruled him out of the Wokingham and turned the ground against him in the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood, where he was still a fine third from a bad draw. That showed how competitive he can be in a big handicap and he's an exciting sprinter who's still unexposed….’
I can’t argue with his assessment. The record speaks for itself. His 4yo is 3 wins from 5 goes this term – including a Listed win at York earlier this month. He’s risen 15lbs in the handicap – from 90 to 105 – since he joined Walker from Ralph Beckett’s yard in March….
Those are the facts that appeal to punters backing him now and who will back him on Saturday. They might also be bombs in Great Ambassador’s profile that serve to get him beaten….
A typical Gold Cup winner tends to have saved his best for the big day….
By that I mean the winner hasn’t typically stacking up wins – shooting up the official rating scale as a result – earlier in the season….
The Gold Cup is both prestigious and valuable. It tends to be a race trainers target well in advance….
Plenty of horses turn up with handicap marks that have been protected and preparations that have been structured for this specific day….
Those horses can be at an advantage over others that have been seriously aimed at big races earlier in the summer. Eight of the last 13 winners had won once or not at all during the build-up to Ayr…
And last-time out handicap form has proved more influential than pattern form….
Great Ambassador has a bit of that stuff in his record. He ran a cracker in the Stewards’ Cup. But was up at Listed class last time – and horses that ran in a G2, a G3 or a Listed race ahead of Ayr have a record that reads 0 from 67 across the last decade….
Of course, stats, trends and metrics are not absolute truths. They’re there to be turned over – and they frequently are….
But if you’re looking in advance for reasons Ed Walker’s horse will get beaten on Saturday, those two features of his profile are toward the top of the list….
And I wouldn’t be trusting to Ed Walker’s meteorological prowess either. That’s for certain….
Qualified weathermen are relatively clueless when it comes to nailing down what the weather’s going to do in 48 hours’ time. And I don’t imagine Ed Walker has the jump on them….
I can’t tell you how many times over the years that I’ve looked at an advance weather forecast and seen clear days forecast only for the heavens to open – and never stop – ahead of the race….
Ed Walker says they ‘shouldn’t’ get heavy rain. But that doesn’t mean they won’t. Looking at the Met office forecast this morning there is rain forecast later today and into tomorrow….
It might not arrive. It might fall only lightly. But it can go the other way too. I’d be keeping my eye on how the forecast develops over the next 24-hours rather than relying on the prognostications of a trainer with a vested interest – one who might be speaking more from hope than any sense of certainty….
Of course, fancied horses frequently make a monkey out of punters like me who shoot at a price….
And the fact is that short horses and their backers have been hot property in the Gold Cup over the last couple of decades….
Since 2002 42 horses were sent off at 8s or shorter and produced 4 winners and 17 placers – a total place strike rate of 50%....
That’s very good going. Placepot, Jackpot and Scoop6 players should take note….
Most punters who play the top end of the market won’t be aware of those exact figures – just that short horses land you in the pay-out queue more frequently than the longer-priced variety….
But most of those punters will also be entirely unaware that backing such horses doesn’t lead to any significant long-term profit – or that backing such horses is a dance that involves repeatedly stepping backwards and forwards but never veering too far from your starting point….
Personally, I prefer to play further down the betting and chance my arm on ‘live’ contenders the market is overlooking or underestimating….
There’s no shortage of websites offering-up stats to help punters like me split the field and identify such runners….
But – as ever – the punter is advised to apply discrimination. There’s a lot of stuff data out there that won’t help you solve the puzzle….
This for example: ‘21/21 winners did not debut in Scotland….’
Is it just me? Am I missing something? Or is that not too different from saying that 21/21 winners had four legs and a tail?
Facts are facts I suppose. And I guess they bear reporting on websites where the need to fill space sometimes conflicts with the intention to say something that has practical value….
I’d be more inclined to take note of the fact that 18 of the last 21 winners had raced within the last 5-weeks….
That no horse older than 6 has won this race since 1993….
That 19 of the last 21 winners had appeared at least 10 times on a racecourse….
And that some handlers have better records in these Ayr sprints than others….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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