Saturday, 2nd October 2021
Andrew Balding’s OO DE LALLY is my answer to the puzzle presented by this afternoon’s Challenge Cup at Ascot (3.50)….
He’s been to Ascot before – back in April – and got beaten soundly enough by the subsequent Wokingham winner in a G3….
But that was over 6f and having stepped up to 7f since then, this progressive 3yo has posted three fresh career best from his last four – and he can step on again….
He was last seen in July when winning a 3yo handicap at Goodwood off a mark of 101. He’s up just 2lb for that and he’s still in the game….
This is tougher. He’s up against the older horses in a handicap for the first time. But if there’s more to come – and the comfortable manner in which he won last time at Goodwood suggest there will be – then he can be a player….
He’s had 63 days off and I’d imagine this has been a back-of-the-mind target. It doesn’t make much sense to have given him the break only to run him as an after-thought at this late stage of the season….
They’ve probably been waiting for the ground to turn. Now it has and the good to soft will suit. He’s a fair bet at the general 18s….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are up at 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally….
It’s tight enough at the top end of the market for tomorrow’s Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp (3.05)….
Tarnawa, Adayar, Hurricane Lane and Snowfall are all up at prices ranging from 3s to 5s….
On the evidence of what we already know – they are the horses to back. For sure. And plenty of punters will look no further….
I prefer to look a little further down the list in search of a horse yet to show its hand - one trading at a price that doesn’t factor in what it is we might learn tomorrow….
J-C Rouget’s RAABIHAH strikes me as a runner that could have an ace up her sleeve….
Last time at Deauville in a G2 for fillies she took another step forward – staying on strongly over the extended 12f to win under a hands and heels ride….
There’s a hell of a lot more to come from her and – whilst tomorrow’s assignment is very much of the deep-end variety – her trainer is not short of winning experience at the top end of the game and she could prove a sight better than the 25s about her suggests….
If you’re looking for a ‘live contender at a price – and I am always looking for that – this filly has plenty going for her….
The downside is the draw. She’s widest of all. But Treve, Golden Horn and Found all won from wide in recent years. And other horses have run big races from the outside stalls….
Of course, all three of those winners had already done more on the track than Raabihah. And maybe it takes a top-drawer horse to win from where she’ll start tomorrow….
Certainly that might well be the case on decent ground. But on soft ground I’m not sure the draw is as potent a factor. Her starting berth may well be over-represented in her price – and I’m betting accordingly….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook are up at 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/4 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies this weekend…. In the Challenge Cup (3.50 @ Ascot).
In the Arc (Sunday, 3.05 @ Longchamp).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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