Thursday, 7th October 2021
Richard Fahey’s HARTSWOOD has never run a bad race yet at York and is a fair bet at 11s to land tomorrow afternoon’s Download The Casumo App Today Handicap at 3.15….
He won a C2 handicap as a 3yo at the track – having shown up well in a C4 event the previous time….
Then – last August – he finished 2nd to Brunch in a mile handicap at the track – giving away a pound and beaten just half a length….
That one is now rated 9lb higher than Richard Fahey’s horse and – whilst one horse’s rate of progression and development cannot be superimposed onto another horse – there is a suggestion that Hartswood will prove better than his current rating of 95 as and when it all comes together….
He ran another good race in a mile handicap at the track in May – finding just a well-handicapped Kynren and Brunch (again) too good….
And he certainly wasn’t disgraced in 6th and beaten just over 4-lengths when stepped up to the extended 10f trip for the John Smith’s Cup back in July….
He was an intended runner in the Cambridgeshire over 9f at Newmarket – but he declared a non-runner owing to quick ground. Connections clearly think he will produce over further than a mile. But a mile run at a decent pace on softer ground at his favourite track should see him to favourable effect….
The betting is tight. The bookies are certainly giving nothing way – with a dozen horses trading between 8s and 14s this morning. And you could easily make a case for any one of them….
But the 4yo’s track form is a key feature in his profile and I see him as one that can go well again at a reasonable enough price….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet & William Hill are paying 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Roger Charlton’s BOLTAWAY has improved in gradual increments throughout the season – producing 4 wins from his 5 goes in handicaps across the 2021 campaign and rising 20lbs up the official rankings as a result….
Last time he won at Newmarket in the manner of a horse with plenty in hand of his mark – putting things to bed swiftly and comfortably in the later stages of the race….
He can improve again in tomorrow’s Old Rowley Cup (4.10) over the same track and trip and rates a fair bet at the general 7s….
That last win at Newmarket was produced off a mark of 87. He carries a 6lb penalty as a result tomorrow. But he’s not disadvantaged. The handicapper put him up 6lbs for the win to 93 and so he effectively runs off what is his new mark….
The one blot on his copybook this term came at Pontefract – in a muddling small-field race where he got turned over at short odds. That day he was out the back when the race was developing on the front end. You can draw a line through it….
The majority of his racing to date has been done on ground that would be quick enough for him and tomorrow’s autumn ground won’t do him any harm at all. I see the softer ground as a variable that will draw additional improvement out of this Dubawi colt….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet & William Hill are paying 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally and 1/4 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Download The Casumo App Today Handicap (3.15 @ York).
In the Old Rowley Cup (4.10 @ Newmarket).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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