Friday, 15th October 2021
Just one top-end handicap to focus on this weekend – the Balmoral closes the Champions Day card at Ascot tomorrow afternoon (4.30)….
A field of 20 goes to post for the mile contest run up the straight. The ground is reported as good to soft. The outlook is mainly dry – with possible occasional light showers….
Two of John & Thady Gosden’s horses – they have four in the race – lead the way in the betting. Sunray Major and King Leonidas are 5/2 and 11/2 generally. Last time out winners Aldaary and Nugget are also prominent and trading at single figures....
The one I like at a price is RAISE YOU at the general 20s and 18s….
Joseph O’Brien’s 5yo is fresher than most coming into the race – having raced just three times this term….
First time out at the Curragh in April he won first-time up in handicaps over the straight mile – getting himself talked about as a potential Royal Hunt Cup horse in the process – a win for which he went up 3lbs….
Next time out in a G3 at Leopardstown in May he disappointed. Last time out at Galway in July, he showed up well in another big-field handicap run on soft ground over the turning mile – finishing 5th of 18 and unlucky not to finish closer having been denied room late on….
That was a decent effort – one which suggests there is more to come on his current mark….
He’s been off since then – for 81 days. My take is that they’ve effectively avoided quicker midsummer ground – choosing instead to wait until late-season before targeting a big pot with a fresh horse. And I expect the horse to be ready….
O’Brien had him good order for his seasonal debut and I’m working on the assumption that O’Brien will have him equally tuned-up tomorrow….
He’s back on a straight mile – and I see that as a potential plus. A straight mile produced his career-best performance to date at the Curragh in April – and he remains still very much unexposed in those circumstances….
The general 20s and 18s is generous enough….
Each-way backers take note: Betfred is 1/5 the first 7 places. Sky Bet and Boylesports are 1/5 the first 6 places. You can get 1/5 the first 5 places generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Balmoral Handicap (4.30 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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