Friday, 22nd October 2021
Storm Control is a worthy favourite in tomorrow’s 888Sport What's Your Thinking Handicap Chase – Cheltenham 2.20….
But there’s more to come yet from Sean Curran’s DOMAINE DE L’ISLE and he rates a bet for me at the general 10s….
Last season was a tale of two halves for the 8yo. He couldn’t put a foot right in five goes over fences between October and January – getting well beaten in four and unseating in the Paddy Power Gold Cup….
But then the horse was given a wind operation and that procedure contributed to a big turnaround in form that saw the horse produce two wins from two goes in the spring….
The first came in a C3 handicap at Kempton. The second was produced in a C2 handicap on the New course at Cheltenham over 3m2f on good ground….
He’s gone up the rankings from 137 to 149 for those wins. You could certainly take the view that things are not getting any easier – and that the last win has put the cap on him….
But he won that race well enough – looking like he’d something in hand. And he was rated 146 ahead of last season – when aimed at decent prizes. So, you might also take the view that the wind operation has enabled this chaser to get back to where he was headed anyway….
I prefer to take the positive view. That last win at Cheltenham was his first go over the kind of trip his trainer has talked about as ideal for him for a while. And it’s reasonable to take the view that now he’s running at that kind of trip there will be more to come….
He handles the track and he also gets his ground. The assumption is that he’ll be ready to go out and do himself justice at the first time of asking. The 10s is fair enough in my book….
Each-way backers take note: You can get 1/5 the first 4 and 1/4 the first 3 generally….
Qualifiers are frequently more about qualifying than winning for connections – and that’s not an ideal scenario for punters when the bookies construct markets focused on winning rather than qualifying….
But everybody’s in the same boat with tomorrow’s Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) – Cheltenham 4.05 – and at the general 14s I reckon Denis Hogan’s MACGILONEY rates a bet….
The Irish horses are feeling the back of the handicapper’s hand this weekend – with plenty of raiders running off marks 5lbs or 6lbs ahead of those they’d be running off in Ireland….
It’s a levelling up campaign – the British handicapper’s effort to smooth down the baize and reverse a situation which has seen the Irish jumps horses regularly assert superiority over their British counterparts in recent years….
We’ll see how that campaign works out as time goes on. For the purposes of tomorrow’s race, I don’t think Macgiloney is out of it running off a British mark of 137….
He should certainly be fit enough tomorrow – he’s been on the go across the summer in a mixed campaign over hurdles and fences. For my money he’s ben better over the smaller obstacles and I’m certainly not concerned about the ‘P’ on the far right of his form figures….
He was running over fences that day over an inadequate trip on ground that was too soft for him. What he needs is 3-miles on decent ground and that’s exactly what he gets tomorrow….
Whether or not he is quite good enough remains to be seen. Gordon Elliott’s Tullybeg is the one to beat and will take some beating. But I’m a bat-swinger at a price – that’s my nature and that’s how I play the game. And the 14s is sufficient to encourage me to open my shoulders in the hope that wood will meet leather….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet and Betfred are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 and 1/4 the first 3 generally….
The fat lady will soon be getting ready to burst into a song that will bring the curtain down on the 2021 flat season….
But there’s still betting business to be done on the turf before she clears the gaff – not least in the 5f sprint at Doncaster at 4.20 tomorrow….
I wouldn’t argue with anybody who wanted to back Michael Appleby’s Raasel – but this column is about putting up a horse that the market isn’t shouting so loudly about and SUNDAY SOVEREIGN is the bet for me at 9s….
He was beaten fair and square last time at Haydock by Zargun – who reopposes tomorrow….
But that one got the run on Tim Easterby’s horse – who never saw any cover from the widest stall of all and was going best of in the later stages of the race….
A 4lb turnaround at the weights and slightly different tactics could well see that Catterick outcome reversed tomorrow….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet & William Hill are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the 888Sport What's Your Thinking Handicap Chase (2.20 @ Cheltenham).
In the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) (4.05 @ Cheltenham).
In the Virgin Bet Handicap (4.20 @ Doncaster).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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