Friday, 29th October 2021
The ground could well be pretty soft by the time they go to post for the first race at Ascot tomorrow afternoon….
The forecast is for some light rain today and for some heavy rain mid-morning tomorrow that endures into the late afternoon….
Depending on which forecasting site you use – expectations re for up to 16mm of rainfall….
It’s something to bear in mind. Right now the ground at the track is described as good to soft on both the hurdle and chase courses. It’s unlikely to stay that way….
Which sourpuss would begrudge old Regal Encore another day in the spotlight?
The old timer is 8s to defend the Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap Chase tomorrow (3.20 @ Ascot)….
He loves the track. The ground is coming right for him. And he’s reported to be in good fettle – winging fences in work at home earlier this week. But it’s a big ask as a 13yo off a mark of 149….
That said if he’s still pitching away in the later stages of the race then it is not inconceivable that he becomes only the third 13yo to win a race at Graded level in Britain in the last 25-years….
Good luck to him – but my money will be riding on his tablemate SOJOURN at the general 10s….
He’s never been to Ascot before. But he does go well fresh, he will go on the ground and on a mark of 142 there’s plenty of scope for him to improve on what he’s shown to date….
He’s totally unexposed over fences. But 3 miles on soft or heavy ground looks to be right up his street.
He ran well in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock last term – finding just Sam’s Adventure too good on the day. He got beaten 4-lengths fair and square….
But bear in mind that Sam’s Adventure was rated just 133 at the time and was getting 7lbs off Sojourn. If they were in the same race tomorrow Sojourn would be getting 5lls off Sam’s Adventure….
The last time Sojourn was seen was in the Grand National Trial in February – also at Haydock. He certainly wasn’t unfancied that day. He was found to have a wound on high right hind after the race and so can be forgiven for pulling up quickly….
He’s an interesting chaser at a decent price and a wind-op during the close might just help him kick on to the next level….
Each-way backers take note: You can get 1/5 the first 5 with Sky Bet. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally. Betway & Bet365 are 1/4 the first 3….
It’s a tight old market for the Byrne Group Handicap Chase (2.45 @ Ascot)….
There’s a clear favourite in the shape of Gary Moore’s Editeur De Gite – but behind him there is a quintet of horses all trading at around 6s….
It’s one of those – Dan Skelton’s AMOOLA GOLD – who appeals as the answer to this particular puzzle….
The 8yo had a very good time of it last term – winning two of is five assignments over fences, finishing 2nd in two more and rising up the rating scale some 19lbs to the career high mark of 146 that he runs off tomorrow….
A sceptic might make the case that this horse has done his winning and is going to find life difficult now. I understand that argument. But the fact is that Amoola Gold was the only horse to give Sky Pirate a race in the Edward Courage Cup at Warwick in February….
That was off 143 and at one point up the straight it looked for a moment that he might get to the 145 winner – who went on to win the Grand Annual off 152 and is now rated 159 over fences….
It’s fair to say that Sky Pirate was always going that bit better and that over the 2m trip Amoola Gold ran like a horse calling for a step-up in trip. But it was a fair performance that suggested winning off a mark in the mid-140s isn’t beyond him….
He’s over 2-miles again tomorrow. But the rain will help – creating more of a stamina test – and Ascot is a track at which this horse produces. He won a Listed race there last October and found just the fast-improving First Flow too good for him in a C2 handicap in November….
He got a beat a neck that last day – in receipt of 10lb from First Flow. That one of Kim Bailey has since risen 15lbs in the handicap since and was clearly still very well handicapped on 148 on the day….
Each-way backers take note: You can get 1/5 the first 4 with Sky Bet & William Hill. You can 1/4 the first 3 with Betway. You can get 1/5 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3.20 @ Ascot).
In the Byrne Group Handicap Chase (2.45 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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