Friday, 5th November 2021
The Grand Sefton at Aintree – Saturday @ 2.15 – has an interesting shape to the betting in that a couple at the top of the list are ripe for opposing….
Jonjo O’Neill’s Time To Get Up at 9/2 is shortest of all. The yard’s hit a bit of form this last week and the 8yo is prominent enough in the betting for the Grand National in April. Perhaps that’s what’s driving the price….
But he ain’t had no prep run. And given that he looks headed for the April showpiece and needed every inch of the trip in the Midlands Grand National he won at Uttoxeter in March – the Becher Chase at 3m2f strikes as a more natural fit for this horse….
My take is that Time To Get Up hasn’t become a 2m5f horse overnight and that connections wanted the horse to get a look at the National fences on half-decent ground – more likely tomorrow than a month down the road….
I wonder how likely he is to be as straight as an arrow with no run under his belt and with connections working backwards from his spring target. I’m happy taking him on….
Ditto Alan King’s Senior Citizen at 6s. He’s got form over the big fences and on good ground he’d be a proper danger. But they’ve had plenty of rain and there’s a bit more forecast between now and the off. I just think conditions have gone against him….
The one I like for the job is Edward O’Grady’s THE WEST’S AWAKE at the general 14s & 12s….
O’Grady’s only had one runner in the race previously – Tranquil Sea placed in 2012’s small-field renewal – but he’s had this race in mind for the 10yo for the last couple of seasons….
On each occasion the horse has encountered a problem that’s scuppered the plan, but he’s here this time around….
He’s had a prep-run at Cork where he was 3rd of 10 and beaten 8-lengths over 2m. He had to be pushed along at points – but then the minimum trip isn’t his bag and he’ll be much more comfortable over tomorrow’s 2m5f….
You can ever know how a horse is going to take to the big fences. But he’s only been on the floor once in 27 chase outings – and that was 17 races back. The suggestion is that he’s a sure-footed type….
He’s got plenty of form on proper good ground – but he’s handled soft and heavy surfaces too and I’m taking the view that he’ll be okay tomorrow at Aintree….
He can race handy too. And that’s never a bad thing over these fences which can make it difficult to make up ground late on. All in all I reckon he’s a fair bet at the price….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet & William Hill are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 and 1/4 the first 3 generally….
Paul Nicholls boasts a formidable record in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton – Saturday @ 3.00….
His last 39 runners produced 7 wins and 9 additional places….
Highland Hunter is the pick of the pair he’s entered this time around – but he’s not been missed by the market. He’s up at 7s with Harry Cobden in the plate….
The ground at Wincanton is good and they’ve been watering since Wednesday to maintain underfoot conditions….
That’s perfect for Emma Lavelle’s IRISH PROPHECY. He needs it sound underfoot and rates a bet at the general 11s & 10s….
One upside he’s got going for him is that he’s match-fit having been on the go since August – and he’s been going well….
He put in a couple of fair efforts at Warwick and Chepstow before running out an impressive winner of the Desert Orchid Silver Cup at Wincanton last month – up at the extended 3m2f trip for the first time….
He jumped well that day – producing a couple of leaps that even old Desert Orchid might have been proud of – before pulling clear and putting the race to bed as he liked….
It was a career-best effort and he’s been put up 7lbs to a career high mark of 144 as a consequence….
He will need to raise his game again because tomorrow’s race is better and deeper. But the way he won – eased down late on and seemingly with plenty in hand – suggested that he may well find more improvement yet….
Connections won tomorrow’s race with Court By Surprise in 2014. The owner would love to win it again. The ground is the critical issue. It’s come up right and the horse is on a bit of a roll at just the right time….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 and 1/4 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Grand Sefton (2.15 @ Aintree).
In the Badger Beer Handicap Chase (3.00 @ Wincanton).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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