Thursday, 11th November 2021
When I look at a handicap race, I never look for the winner. Instead, I look at advantage and price....
With a big handicap field my first job is to establish which horses have a key advantage – an edge that might distinguish them from opponents of similar ability....
Next, I look at price. Which advantaged horse can be bet at a price that overlooks the edge it possesses?
I don’t worry about whether the horse will win. Nobody knows that. Least of all me....
Trying to predict how a big handicap will turn out is like chucking a bucket of carrots into the air and calling out which one will hit the ground first....
My focus in big handicaps is directed on identifying an advantaged horse trading at a price that under-estimates its competitive edge. I’m talking about value….
I figure that if I identify that kind of horse frequently enough, the winners will look after themselves long-term. So too the bottom-line....
It’s not a method that guarantees success. Nor does it preclude pain. But it makes sense to me – and it’s how I play….
There’s no one advantage to look for. ‘Advantage’ changes race to race, horse to horse and situation to situation….
I keep an open mind. I analyse as much unique data as I can. I watch races repeatedly. And I work with what that process turns up. It’s as simple and as complicated as that….
I spent yesterday afternoon studying a dataset based on races run over the Old course fences….
With final declarations for Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup published earlier today, I wondered if any jockey with a ride in the race has a performance record that suggests he/she might represent an advantage to a horse?
After all, the jockey is the only human being who can influence a horse’s performance once a race is underway….
The table below shows the record of each rider’s qualifying rides since March 2009. Those riders that don’t appear have had no qualifying rides….
|
Jockey |
W |
P |
TP |
R |
W% |
TP% |
|
Sam Twiston Davies |
11 |
19 |
30 |
105 |
10.5 |
28.6 |
|
Daryl Jacob |
7 |
12 |
19 |
58 |
12.1 |
32.8 |
|
Aidan Coleman |
6 |
8 |
14 |
73 |
8.2 |
19.2 |
|
Harry Skelton |
5 |
5 |
10 |
46 |
10.9 |
21.7 |
|
Harry Cobden |
4 |
12 |
16 |
44 |
9.1 |
36.4 |
|
Bryony Frost |
3 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
37.5 |
62.5 |
|
Tom O'Brien |
2 |
10 |
12 |
38 |
5.3 |
31.6 |
|
Tom Cannon |
2 |
2 |
4 |
16 |
12.5 |
25.0 |
|
Tom Bellamy |
2 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
|
Adam Wedge |
1 |
1 |
2 |
18 |
5.6 |
11.1 |
|
Ryan Mania |
1 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
Charlie Deutsch |
0 |
6 |
6 |
13 |
0.0 |
46.2 |
|
David Noonan |
0 |
3 |
3 |
8 |
0.0 |
37.5 |
|
Connor Brace |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Tabitha Worsley |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Bridget Andrews |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Robert Dunne |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
These figures only tell us what happened previously. They cannot be relied upon to point you directly at future winners….
But that’s not the point. We’re seeking out information and context. And - whilst crude – these figures do deliver straightforward messages we can factor into our deliberations….
No doubt who wins the volume & experience war – Sam Twiston-Davies with 11 winners from 105. Daryl Jacob is 7/58, Aidan Coleman 6/73, Harry Skelton 5/46, and Harry Cobden 4/44….
But volume tells only a partial tale. A man can have 20 winners but if it took 2000 rides to get them, the tally doesn’t amount to much.
Of those top riders it’s Daryl Jacob with the best runs to wins ratio – his 7 wins coming @ 12.1%. Not an outstanding strike rate. But it is what it is….
Further down the list Bryony Frost has a win strike rate of 37.5%. She’s done well – but her 3 winners came from just 8 rides….
She isn’t going to keep that up. She can’t be underestimated. But it’s too early to make conclusions about her overall consistency. Ditto Tom Bellamy – with 2 wins from 4 rides to date….
Consistency is key. Any rider can produce a flash in the pan performance. But if you’re going to represent an advantage to a top handicapper, you need to perform consistently….
The total place strike rate figure serves to highlight these consistent performers. I like a 30%+ figure – sustained across a meaningful sample of rides….
Harry Cobden (36.4% from 44 rides) and Daryl Jacob (32.8% from 58) both score well….
But two additional names stand out for the first time on this metric: Tom O’Brien (31.6% from 38) and David Noonan (37.5% from 8)….
Noonan’s record is particularly interesting. All his rides were in races with 12 to 18 runners. So, his figures have been earned the hard way….
So, do these figures point at a winner? No. They don’t even point at a bet. But what is a bet if not money put down to support an opinion….
And where opinions are concerned – it is the informed opinion that has most merit….
Most market players you’re betting against don’t have an informed opinion – relying instead on guesswork, hunches, or some other voodoo….
An informed opinion is an edge in the market. No doubt. Smart money always beat dumb money – across the long-term….
And on the back of our simple analysis, we’re at an advantage. We have more informed opinions about potential riders on Saturday afternoon than most market participants we’ll be betting against….
We don’t need to guess. Or rely on the validity of third-party opinion. We know a little something most punters don’t. And that’s an important part of the game….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
Nick Pullen
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