Thursday, 25th November 2021
By and large handicap races are contested by horses of similar ability….
And – where there are disparities – the official rating system (which dictates allocation of weight) is there to level things up….
So, handicap races are generally ultra-competitive contests. No doubt….
And it is my view that when yards are going well with their runners in the C1 to C4 handicaps (I discount the lower level stuff) it’s a sure sign that the yard’s inmates are in particularly rude health – with an edge over the competition….
Donald McCain’s had a particularly good 28-day period in that sphere – his 35 runners producing 11 winners and 8 placers….
With the exception of Fergal O’Brien (14-8-43) nobody has gone better….
Winner-hungry Brian Hughes rode 6 of the winners for McCain – from 15 rides – and the pair combine again tomorrow at Newbury in the Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase (2.25) with GAELIK COAST….
The 7yo’s up at a general 10s this morning and he can outrun those odds….
He comes into the race as an improving type on a career-high mark. So do others….
But a couple of those will be having their first go this term whilst McCain’s horse is match-fit with two runs under his belt since mid-October….
He was only just held in the first of those at Wetherby. Next time at Musselburgh he went one better under 12-1 giving weight to lesser horses on soft ground….
He’s up 8lb for the two races this term and tomorrow’s race is a step up in class and opposition. But there could me more to come yet….
McCain has entered the horse in next month’s G3 Caspian Gold Cup at Cheltenham – a proper top handicap run for proper money….
He might not take up the engagement. If he does, he might not be good enough….
But the fact he’s there at all suggests that McCain believes his horse could take a step forward from his current perch of 142….
The 7yo could be more competitive tomorrow afternoon than the odds suggest….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet & William Hill are 1/5 the first 4. You can get 1/5 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase (2.25 @ Newbury).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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