Friday, 26th November 2021
I’m having a proper swing of the bat in tomorrow’s Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury (3.00)….
The majority of punters will play it safe and opt for one of the fancied four – Eklat De Rire, Ontheropes, Fiddlerontheroof or Enrilo….
And it wouldn’t take a genius to make a convincing case for any one of them. The form’s in the book. The potential of each horse is clear to see….
But – where I can – I go out on a limb and highlight something the market isn’t calling out loud and clear….
…. something maybe overlooked at the prices…. a dark horse who can outrun market expectation….
The one that stands out in tomorrow’s line-up is ONE MORE FLEURIE. He appeals each-way at the 33s….
He improved plenty in the spring – winning 4 of 7 races. The highlight was his win in the Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase at Ayr – with subsequent Grand Sefton winner Mac Tottie 6-lengths in arrears. The 4th franked the form next time out too….
One More Fleurie made all, he jumped like a stag and kept on well in the closing stages. It was a taking effort. The handicapper didn’t miss it – putting the horse up 10lbs to 138….
He’s only 7, he’s only had 8 goes over fences and there is improvement to come yet. He’s still dangerous off his current mark – particularly if he can put in another round of jumping like he did at Ayr….
He was well-beaten at Ascot on his return. But I reckon he badly needed the run that day and I can’t take the performance literally. I expect a different proposition tomorrow….
The Ayr performance was produced on performances genuine good ground. He won’t get that tomorrow
But he’s performed on softer surfaces and it’s not like it’s been raining for weeks. It won’t be out-and-out winter ground. He can go better than his price suggests….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet & William Hill are paying 1/5 the first 7. Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred & Boylesports are 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally….
In the Peter O’ Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase (1.15) Henry De Bromhead’s SOMPTUEUX rates a bet at the 9s….
He’s not run yet this term. I believe the Paddy Power Gold at Cheltenham a fortnight back was his original season-starting target….
For whatever reason – perhaps he wasn’t quite ready – he didn’t make it there and turns up here instead….
It’s a long way to travel with a horse that needs the run and I expect him to be spot-on tomorrow….
He disappointed at Galway when last seen. That happens. But his trainer was really confident of a big run ahead of the race….
What that tells me is that those who know the horse best reckon he can get the job done – or something close to it – off an Irish mark of 140….
He runs off 142 over here tomorrow. But connections know the handicapping situation with Irish horses running in Britain before they turn up. He wouldn’t be here if they didn’t think he was up to the job….
I think he’s a player – and the price is fair. Rachel Blackmore partners and that’s no terrible thing….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. You can 1/5 the first 4 generally….
The Watch Racing Free Online At Ladbrokes Handicap Chase closes the card at Newbury tomorrow at 3.35….
Heather Main’s NUMITOR is up in class but the manner of his last time out win at Wetherby under James Bowen suggests he can take a deeper race and stronger opposition in his stride….
He’s still only rated 130 and with just 5 chases under his belt you’d think there’s more to come yet….
However the ground rides tomorrow, it won’t bother him. He’s versatile. Tom Scudamore – who rides Newbury so well – is back in the plate tomorrow.
I expect a big run. The general 12s is a fair price….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. You can 1/5 the first 4 generally….
It’s a tight market for the Rehearsal Handicap Chase at Newcastle (2.40) – six of the 13 runners are in at 8s or shorter….
I’m going to back GLEN FORSA at the 9s. He’s really well handicapped on his old form and he showed plenty of spirit and zest first time up for Charlie Longsdon at Ascot….
He put plenty of pace into the race from the front end that afternoon. And – while he was overhauled in the later stages – he really kept up to his work and that was encouraging to see….
I think he’s on his way back. I’ve made my case previously in this column. And tomorrow could well be the day. I can’t not back him….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. You can 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Ladbrokes Trophy (3.00 @ Newbury).
In the Peter O’ Sullevan (1.15 @ Newbury).
In the Watch Racing Free Online At Ladbrokes (3.35 @ Newbury).
In the Rehearsal Handicap Chase (2.40 @ Newcastle).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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