Friday, 10th December 2021
It would have been a surprise – to some onlookers at least – to see Sue Smith send JOKE DANCER out last time over the extended 3m1f trip at Haydock….
After all each of the 8yo’s seven career wins have been logged at the minimum trip….
And it isn’t like he’s been showing incontrovertible signs of needing such an extreme test….
If the assignment was an experiment – perhaps with the aim of figuring out what this horse is and where he goes from here – then the conclusion was clear to anybody with a pair of eyes in their head….
The horse doesn’t stay that far. No doubt….
He faded out of proceedings swiftly in the straight and probably ought to have been pulled up by Sean Quinlan before a tired fall at the last fence drew a line under the performance….
One interesting thing about this horse is that connections were talking about him as a potential stayer beyond the minimum trip as early as his 3rd run over fences – he’s now had 11….
He won at Warwick that day under Danny Cook and after the race the jockey had this to say….
'I was really pleased with Joke Dancer's jumping and he went through the race really well. I was surprised how well he picked up when I asked after the last, as he is really a 3m chaser winning over 2m….’
Perhaps they got it wrong about his potential at a trip. It’s not uncommon for connections to know a lot less for sure about a horse than you’d think possible….
In three goes at 2m4f Joke Dancer fell well short of lighting up the track. That’s for sure….
In those races he sent out mixed signals. He either ran like he was outpaced or he faded out of things quickly at the business end….
Was the in-between trip too short or too far? Hard to tell….
Perhaps that’s why they ran him over the staying trip at Haydock. Perhaps they wanted to figure out something for sure….
Despite the way the Haydock race panned out it was an instructive performance – at least as far as I’m concerned….
Joke Dancer ran well for a long way. Like a fit horse. It was only late on that he got tired and gave best to proper stayers. The extreme trip isn’t for him….
But based on what I saw I do think he’s well worth another try at Saturday’s in-between trip – and at this morning’s 40s I am prepared to swing the bat at him….
He’s a dark horse in my book – a horse that could well out-perform that big price….
For sure, he’s had his chances at this kind of trip before and failed to deliver. I can’t argue with that assessment….
But he was running in a G2 and two Listed contests. Maybe they were a bit too hot for him….
Maybe he was having problems at that time. Maybe he wasn’t fully fit. Maybe he wasn’t fully mature….
I can’t know. Not for sure. And he’s pretty much untested and certainly unproven at this kind of level….
But what I do know for certain is that Joke Dancer is dangerously well handicapped on a mark of just 132 for tomorrow’s race….
He’s slipped steadily down the rankings over the last 18 months and is now rated 2lb lower than his last winning mark….
And there was a lot to like in the Haydock performance – despite the ultimate end-product. He travelled nice, jumped well, and went deep enough into the race to suggest that stepping back to tomorrow’s trip might just be right up his street….
Of course, his trainer also sends Midnight Shadow – out of the same ownership. That one goes for a big double having won last month’s Paddy Power Gold Cup – and is fancied at 8s….
Is my man here as the sacrificial lamb – running to ensure a solid pace for his stablemate? It’s always possible….
You wouldn’t think a pacemaker would be needed with Coole Cody in the field and plenty of other runners lining up that like to race prominently….
Perhaps connections are doing what they can to cover all the angles. I’ll just have to live with if it works out that my man is running as part of a wider tactical plan….
But if my man is here to run on his own merits then he might just be fit enough and well-handicapped enough to outrun the wider market’s assessment of him….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill, Sky Bet & Betfred are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Racing Post Gold Cup (1.50 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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