Friday, 7th January 2022
It’s a quiet Saturday on the racing front….
For handicap punters the focus is the Final of the Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase series at Sandown – a race contested over the 3-mile trip….
13 horses – all aged 10+ – will line up on ground currently described as soft (good to soft in places)….
How long that bit of good to soft in places will last is debateable. There’s a bit of rain forecast today. But plenty more is thought to be coming tomorrow – up to 10mm is forecast to fall on the track from 6am onwards….
It could well be outright heavy underfoot by the time they go to post at 3.00….
It’s not difficult to see why Aso tops the market at 11/4 this morning….
Just over 2-years ago he was rated 168. Last year – rated 158 – he was still considered good enough to run for place money in the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival….
Earlier this term he was dropped 6lbs to 147 on the back of his seasonal return at Cheltenham – a beneficial fall from grace that qualified him to run in this series….
He’s back up to 149 for tomorrow’s final – after running a really good race under a big weight behind Blaklion at Haydock in a qualifier – but that’s no big deal….
He’ll shoulder top-weight in what promises to be a test in the conditions – but based on what he’s achieved and how he’s still performing he’s clearly the one to beat in this kind of company….
I don’t really fancy anything in the bottom half of the market. I’d be reaching to make a compelling case for an outsider this time around – and reliant on significant bounce-backs to form that recent performances provide little hope for….
My preference is for Kayley Woollacott’s THE KINGS WRIT at the general 10s….
He qualified very early for the final – in March last year – when he was rated 139. In the meantime he’s dropped to 133 – the perfect scenario – and he looks like he’s been targeted at this long-term having only raced the once this season….
He got well smashed in that race in early December at Exeter. But it did come off a long break and he was running over an inadequate trip. The run has the look of a classic pipe opener and I expect him to be a different proposition entirely tomorrow….
He’s set to carry 10-10 – but a 7lb claimer offsets a portion of that which will help if the ground does turn heavy – with some of the more fancied horses shouldering a hell of a lot more lead….
He’s got form on heavy ground too and he can race close to the pace – ideal tomorrow when it might prove difficult to make up ground in the later stages – and he stays well too….
He’s got plenty of positives in the bag and at a double-figure price he’s the one I’m siding with….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill and Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase (3.00 @ Sandown).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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