Friday, 14th January 2022
Paul Nicholls has already won the Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick three times….
And in GRACE A VOUS ENKI he has another ‘live’ candidate for tomorrow’s renewal (3.00) – at a backable 14s….
The 6yo French import will be having his 4th run for the champion trainer tomorrow – but his first over fences having been kept to novice hurdles so far….
It’s not like he’s just starting out over the bigger obstacles – having produced 2 wins and decent prize money from 9 goes in France – and it’s interesting that he starts life in chases over here with an assignment that offers a decent pot….
There would be other options for a horse who gets to run off a potentially lenient opening mark of 131 – and maybe Nicholls is seeking to capitalize….
The step up in trip is another interesting aspect of this bet. Grace A Vous Enki is a half-brother to Yala Enki. He’ll need to be pretty good to emulate that one – but there’s certainly stamina on the dam side of his pedigree….
There are always down sides to bets at prices. With this one the fact that he took a tumble last time out over hurdles needs to be overlooked. And he’s still a young horse. It may be (assuming he does actually stay) that his big day over stamina sapping trips lies ahead….
But the price is there for tomorrow and he’s an interesting contender. Nicholls places his horses with care and consideration. He may be seeking to learn something – but he won’t be shooting entirely in hope. That’s for sure….
The 6yo will be partnered by Bryony Frost and – over the fences at Warwick – that can be considered a plus. She’s already won this race – in 2018 – and her other 19 rides over fences at the track produced an additional three winners….
It is also worth noting that Frost has struck up a decent working relationship with Yala Enki in his time at the Nicholls yard. The two seem to suit one another….
One horse is never quite the same as the other but if Grace A Vous Enki does share the street-fighting attitude of his older half-brother, then Frost is not a bad candidate to coax that quality out of him and to make the best of it….
It’s a speculative bet – but that’s the way I play. The price is there and this horse is an intriguing candidate….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet & William Hill are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Down at Kempton a maximum field of 20 goes to post for the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at 2.40….
It’s no tough task to make a case for the horses at the top of the market. But that’s not my game….
My mission is always to dig out a candidate that the market is overlooking and I’m minded to swing the bat at Dan Skelton’s CABOT CLIFFS. I reckon he can outrun the general 33s about him this morning….
He’s been shaping like this first-time step up to 2m5f will suit – keeping on in the latter stages of his assignments over the minimum trip….
I was also interested to see that they changed tactics on him at Ascot last time. He was held up instead of being allowed to bowl along in front. He responded well – and it gives his team options for a race like tomorrow’s….
Out front in a big field he’d be there to be shot at in the late stages. A more measured ride might well pay more fruitful dividends….
Bridget Andrews rides and some punters might see that as a negative – taking a view that Harry Skelton rides his brother’s real ‘live’ ones….
But that’s a nonsense. Harry Skelton can’t ride them all. And he can’t ride two meetings on one afternoon. He always goes to Warwick on this weekend – with Andrews tending to be sent to Kempton….
And it’s worth noting that two of the three horses she’s previously ridden for Dan Skelton in the Lanzarote finished 2/16 and 2/14 – beaten 0.75l and 1.5l and sent off at 16s and 12s….
In other words, she’s not been on duds. Tomorrow’s ride is another candidate to out run his price and he makes appeal as an each-way bet….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, Betfred & Boylesports are 1/5 the first 6….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Classic Handicap Chase (3.00 @ Warwick).
In the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (2.40 @ Kempton).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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