Friday, 28th January 2022
With the Cheltenham Festival just a few weeks ahead of us there are plenty of races – conditions races and handicaps – over the next few weekends that serve a dual function….
On one hand, these races are competitive events in their own right….
On the other hand they represent a source of information about horses being aimed at a Festival target….
That’s the case with tomorrow’s Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster (3.20)….
First and foremost a quality field of 17 goes to post to fight for a share of a £100k pot….
…. but the race will also tell us plenty about multiple horses you might expect to turn out in the Ultima on the opening day of the Festival….
With this race at Doncaster and the Trials Day card at Cheltenham, tomorrow is a good day to have your notebook to hand….
That said, I’m not playing in the handicap at Cheltenham. Just 11 go to post, the market hasn’t missed the likely types and I don’t see one at a price that I want to pin my colours to….
Cap Du Nord might well have won this race last year but for a mistake at the second last that cost him vital momentum at a crucial stage of proceedings….
He ran that day off a mark of 139. Tomorrow’s he runs off 10lbs lower – and bottom weight of 10-0. He’s one that certainly catches the eye at the weights….
But there’s a reason why he’s 10lb lower in the rankings. He hasn’t managed to hit the level of form he produced in this race last year in any of his 7 goes over fences since….
He’s produced a couple of efforts that might best be described as par performances. But he’s also been well beaten a few times and he comes into the race with something to prove….
Of course, given his run last year and a rating of 129 he cannot be entirely discounted. You’d think Christian Williams has had this race in mind as a target and the horse could well bounce back to top form. But I wouldn’t want to be taking the 6s about that happening….
It’s fair to say that quite a few of tomorrow’s runners come into this race with question marks against their names. Ten horses either failed to finish last time out or got beaten out of sight. Quite a few have been on the downgrade for a while….
One of those is Nicky Henderson’s JANIKA. He won the Haldon Gold Cup in 2019 off a mark of 162 – but he’s been nowhere near that level since….
He’s been tried over hurdles and a 5th in last season’s Coral Cup at the Festival tells you that he isn’t a complete lost cause. He just seems to have lost his way over fences….
He’s been back over the bigger obstacles for his last two runs and last time at Cheltenham – his first run back since a second wind-op – he was 7th of 16 and beaten 15 lengths over the 2m5f trip….
But he ran a better race than the bare figures suggest. He seemed outpaced at points and whilst he never threatened to get involved at the business end of the race he did keep on without making any big impression….
It wasn’t a stellar performance by any means. But it was much better than the time before at Chepstow and was very much a step in the right direction….
I like the step up to 3-miles tomorrow. It will all happen that bit more slowly for the 9yo – which I think will suit….
He’s been dropped another 5lbs to a mark of 148 and – if he’s sound – then he’s surely getting into territory where he’s dangerous. Especially as Nicky Henderson has put up 7lb claimer Ben Bromley for tomorrow’s assignment….
Perhaps the horse is a busted flush. Perhaps he’s never going to rate in the 150s again over fences. Entirely possible. But he’s very well handicapped, unexposed at the 3m trip and that last time performance was better than it appears on paper….
At the general 16s he’s a dark horse in the betting….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and Betfred are all 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Sky Bet Handicap Chase (3.20 @ Doncaster)….
Advised prices are correct at the time I submit my column for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker - you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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