Friday, 4th February 2022
It’s Friday – that time of the week when I put on my tin hat, stick my head above the parapet, and do my level best to dig out genuine dark horses in the top-level big-field handicaps….
…. ‘live’ contenders that are overlooked or underestimated in the betting….
…. contrarian selections that go against consensus market opinion….
…. or – in other words – the right kind of horses trading at the wrong prices….
Just the one big-field handicap to target this weekend – the Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown (2.55)….
A maximum field of 18 runners go to post to slug it out over the 3m trip on ground described this morning as good to soft (good in places)….
Harry Fry’s Ree Okka tops the betting at a generally available 13/2….
And that ain’t no bad price if you take at face value comments Fry made after the 6yo’s latest victory at Kempton – he’s targeting the G1 Sefton Novice’s Hurdle at Aintree….
The suggestion is that this one is pretty good and on an opening mark of 130 in handicaps he might well have plenty in hand at the weights….
But he’ll need to prove it in the company of some seasoned and streetwise handicappers with more experience in the heat of the big-field handicap furnace….
And in Beauport and Green Book he takes on other lightly-raced hurdlers with the potential to prove plenty better than official ratings in the 130s – both already well-found in the betting….
The one I like as a potential dark horse at a price is Samuel Drinkwater’s THE BRIMMING WATER at the general 18s….
I think he can run a much more competitive race tomorrow than his price suggests off a mark of just 127….
At Wetherby in December he beat Unexpected Party a length at Haydock over 2m5f – in receipt of 4lbs….
That one of Dan Skelton’s is on a steep upward curve of progression and franked the Haydock form with an impressive 4.5 length victory next time out at Ascot….
Unexpected Party went up from 130 to a mark 142 for that performance – and he gives every impression that he isn’t finished yet….
My read is that The Brimming Water could still be rated very nicely himself on the 127….
Last time at Haydock he got beaten on his first go at the 3m trip on soft ground – sent off favourite. But he ran with plenty of credit and I wouldn’t be writing him off at the trip just yet….
Better ground might help him tomorrow – and 10-03 will be a featherweight compared to what he’s been carrying thus far….
He’s up in class and he’s got plenty to prove – for sure. But his price factors that in and he’s a horse that comes into the race with the potential to improve his mark 10lbs+ from where it is right now….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the odds on the first 7. William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power & Betfred are all going 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Heroes Handicap Hurdle (2.55 @ Sandown)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
