Friday, 11th February 2022
It’s Friday – that time of the week when I put on my tin hat, stick my head above the parapet, and do my level best to dig out genuine dark horses in the top-level big-field handicaps….
…. ‘live’ contenders that are overlooked or underestimated in the betting….
…. contrarian selections that go against consensus market opinion….
…. or – in other words – the right kind of horses trading at the wrong prices….
Last season’s Betfair Hurdle (3.35 tomorrow @ Newbury) was a warm race….
Winner Soaring Glory went on to win again at Ascot and wasn’t disgraced when tried at G1 level. 3rd placed Edwardstone produced quality performances in subsequent big handicap hurdle events and this season has established himself as a top-end novice chaser. Buzz and Guard Your Dreams were further back – both winning big-money races since….
Splitting Soaring Glory and Edwardstone that last day at Newbury was Gary Moore’s Fifty Ball with what was a career-best performance. He goes again in tomorrow’s renewal off the same mark of 131 – and if he replicates last season’s run then he’ll go close once again at the general 10s….
I’m not sure this race was his target at the start of the season. He was sent over fences and produced a promising effort first time up at Sandown. But two subsequent goes since have seen him go backwards – and I can’t help but think that tomorrow’s race is something of an on-the-hoof Plan B rethink….
I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran another big race but – at the prices – I’ve decided to stick with the horse I mentioned earlier in the week – Nicky Henderson’s FIRST STREET at the general 12s….
He’s the second-stringer for the yard – but I’d say he’s very much here on merit. He’s up 9lb for his win at Kempton last time. Whilst that’s not ideal – I reckon there’s more to come….
That Kempton performance was a clear career-best – produced off a 99-day break and on the back of a wind-op. I can’t imagine the 5yo has gone out and produced an absolute peak effort in a 6k C3 handicap and I’d imagine Nicky Henderson has left himself plenty to work with yet….
First Street is a 5yo and he’s totally unexposed – so he’s exactly the type of horse that tends to go well in what is one of the most valuable 2m handicap hurdle races on the programme….
Plenty of the likely principals have already been well-found by the market. At twice the price some of those are trading at this one has a bit of dark horse about him and I reckon he can run a bigger race than the prices suggest....
Each-way backers take note: William Hill, Sky Bet, Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power are offering generous terms of 1/5 the first 5 in a field of 14. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally….
I get plenty of stick in this job – with plenty of readers suggesting I change my ways and play at the shorter end of the market….
But nobody needs me to tell them that fancied horses have a big chance. The market is already doing that. And anybody reading this column should feel free to follow the money should they so wish….
My job is to make a case for something the market and its money is overlooking at the prices. And I won’t be changing any time soon….
In the Warwick Castle Handicap Chase (3.15 tomorrow @ Warwick) I’m backing LIEUTENANT ROCCO at the general 12s….
He might not be the same horse that was so widely fancied for last season’s Ultima at the Festival – before he was scratched owing to injury. Time will tell….
But on his first run back at Lingfield – having been off for the best part of a year – he was pitched into an £80k conditions race where he had it all to do at the weights….
Easier assignments might have been found to ease him back in. That’s for sure. He ended up pulling-up. But not before he’d given a reasonable account of himself – travelling up with the pace for a long way before getting tried. Perhaps he needed the race more than connections thought….
Maybe Harriet Brown his new trainer was showing signs of her inexperience in sending him to Lingfield for that hot race – contested by a handful of quality chasers. Maybe she was over-ambitious. Or deluded….
Or maybe she was just confident – the chosen assignment an acknowledgment of the quality of horse she has on her hands. It was certainly a strange choice of comeback race and it tells me that the people at home think this horse is over his injury and retains the potential to win good money….
He’s down to 140 now on the rating scale – he was due to run in the Ultima off 147. And he should be fitter for the Lingfield run. I’m happy to swing the bat at the 12s….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill and Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 4. You can get 1/5 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Betfair Hurdle (3.35 @ Newbury)….
In the Warwick Castle (3.15 @ Warwick)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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