Friday, 11th March 2022
It’s Friday – that time of the week when I put on my tin hat, stick my head above the parapet, and do my level best to dig out genuine dark horses in the top-level handicaps….
…. ‘live’ contenders that are overlooked or underestimated in the betting….
…. contrarian selections that go against consensus market opinion….
…. or – in other words – the right kind of horses trading at the wrong prices….
I looked long and hard at Lively Citizen for tomorrow’s Imperial Cup at Sandown (2.25)….
He’s a proper tough nut with plenty of fight in his belly – which will aid him on the uphill finish to tomorrow’s race – and he’s coming out of races that have worked out well form-wise….
The Cheltenham race he won in December has produced winners. So too the race at that track at the end of January. Winner Cormier won the Morebattle at Kelso last weekend….
Of course, Lively Citizen didn’t get very far in that last race – because his saddle slipped. But he was plenty fancied and if the market had it right he’d have been right up there….
And the chances are he would have run his race – evidenced by the fact he came out three days later and won at Leicester albeit in a lesser race….
He’s a decent each-way shout at the general 18s – with bookies paying 6 and 7 places….
But you can’t back them all, and I reckon Peter Fahey’s SURPRISE PACKAGE is the better-seasoned horse for tomorrow’s job – and he’s my pick at the general 12s….
He’s not a serial winner. A hurdling record that reads 1 win from 12 tells you that much. But he does appreciate a big field – and he’s run very and gone close well multiple times in such circumstances….
He was 2nd in a 21-runner event as a maiden. Then he won a valuable series final in good style at Punchestown over 2m4f last April – against 17 opponents….
He began life in handicaps on a mark of 128 – running with credit at Navan against 21 before finding just one too good in an 18-runner field at Leopardstown….
He was down the field last time back at Leopardstown. But that was the most valuable contest he’s been tried in to date against the best horses he’s encountered. He will have learnt something from the experience – and you’d think that will stand him in good stead tomorrow….
The British handicapper has him 6lb up on his Irish mark. I’m not worried about that. We’ve seen plenty of Irish horses defy that kind of situation. I’m expecting a big run….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill and Sky Bet are paying 1/5 the first 7. You can get 1/5 the first 6 with bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, Betfred and Boylesports….
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Imperial Cup (2.25 @ Sandown)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
P.S. One more thing: I’ll be in your inbox on Saturday and Sunday with coverage leading up to next week’s Cheltenham Festival….
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