Monday, 14th March 2022
The Cheltenham Festival kicks off tomorrow afternoon….
The primary focus for handicap fans on Day 1 of the meeting is the Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50) over the 3m1f trip. A maximum field of 24 goes to post….
Before we get down to business – a word to readers joining us for the week who may be unfamiliar with the way I work and who may have expectations that I won’t deliver on….
I don’t tell you how much money to bet. I don’t work to a ‘points’ system. Nor do I have a staking plan. And I leave it up to you as to whether or not you back a selection each-way….
Why I don’t do what I don’t do is explained here….
The bottom line is this: I put up my selections. It’s up to you how you back them – if indeed you are backing them….
Let’s get on with it….
The Irish have won just two renewals of the Ultima since 2000….
That’s a trend ripe for reversion in my book and Gordon Elliott’s Floueur might very well be the horse to get that job done this time around – with Jordon Gainford in the plate and claiming 3lbs….
But that one has already been well-found in the betting and I must look elsewhere….
The job at ATC is not to simply regurgitate what the market is already calling out loud and clear – but to highlight a ‘live’ contender that the market is overlooking or underestimating at a nice price….
Fantastikas makes some appeal for Nigel Twiston-Davies. He’s run some good races. Not least in the Dipper at Cheltenham on New Years’ Day where he put it up to the very talented L’ Homme Presse for a long way….
Our Power could well prove dangerous too at the bottom of the weights for Sam Thomas and Charlie Deutsch….
But you can’t back them all and the one I’ve settled on as my pick is Tom Lacey’s TEA CLIPPER at the general 16s….
He looked like a hot prospect in the making when starting out over fences at Chepstow in October – producing a 150+ performance and beating some decent sorts….
On his next two starts – in G2 and G1 races – he failed to build on that early promise. Perhaps he was being tried out of his Grade. Perhaps the intermediate trips undid him. Or the ground. Perhaps he wasn’t quite right….
I plump for the latter option. He was given a wind-op in January and hopefully that will enable him to resume his progress….
This will be his first run since that operation. And that’s a little worry, of course. So too the application of first-time cheekpieces. But they’ve had plenty of time with him at home to get him straight and to work him in the headgear on the gallops….
He was never going to be out any sooner because he doesn’t handle proper winter ground. And I’m not worried about the break because he’s produced performances fresh in the past….
It will be his first go in a handicap, just his second at the trip over fences, and I reckon he’s go the potential – and the mark – to produce a big effort….
It’s inconceivable to me that we saw the very best of him first-time up over fences. He could easily prove 10lbs better than his current perch if he’s ready to rock and roll – and I’m assuming he is….
Look back through his record and you’ll see big performances in big-field handicaps over hurdles at Cheltenham and Aintree last spring. He handles the hustle and bustle of a big field, he clearly handles the track, and this is his time of the year. The yard’s going nicely too….
I’m taking a little on chance with this one. But I reckon he’s full of potential and the 16s about him is a nice price….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill, Sky Bet, Betfair Sportsbook & Betfred are paying 1/5 the first 7. Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, 888sport, Paddy Power & Boylesports are 1/5 the first 6….
At ATC I primarily focus on the big-field handicaps….
But I’m not a crank and at the big meetings I’ll play in some of the big G1 races too….
So it is tomorrow with the Champion Hurdle (3.30) where Honeysuckle seeks to defend her crown with everything in her favour….
In a handicap she’d be giving away lumps of weight to the opposition but in a conditions races (with the mares’ allowance to boot) she’s getting weight off all but Epatante – and it’s no wonder she’s odds-on in the betting and solid banker material in the minds of many punters…..
But you can’t run scared of one horse. Anything can happen. They can all get beaten – one way or another. And for me it’s an opportunity to swing the bat at an improving young hurdler up at a double figure price – TEAHUPOO at the general 10s….
He’s done nothing wrong this term – winning three from three and performing better with each win. Better ground and a quicker pace than he’s been getting will see him to better effect still – and I think he’ll be fitter for this primary target….
I can’t imagine Gordon Elliott has had him fully wound up to his ultimate peak before now. But he’ll be somewhere close tomorrow and we don’t know where his ceiling is yet….
I’m backing him in the win market. But, if you’re feeling cautious, you might take the 7/2 in the ‘Without Honeysuckle’ market….
Each-way backers take note: It’s 1/5 the first 3 across the board….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Ultima (2.50 @ Cheltenham)….
In the Champion Hurdle (3.30 @ Cheltenham)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on Day 2 at the Cheltenham Festival….
Until then….
Stay tuned.
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