Tuesday, 15th March 2022
The Cheltenham Festival kicks off this afternoon – but we’re already ahead of the game here on ATC….
I always go out with my picks 24-hours ahead of time – in an effort to beat the market to the punch and to bag the best of the prices about my selections….
I sent out my advice for Day 1 of the meeting yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here….
Today the focus is on Day 2 – where the feature events for handicap fans are the Coral Cup over the hurdles and the 2m5f trip (2.50) and the Grand Annual over the fences and the minimum trip (4.50)….
Before we get down to business – a word to readers joining us for the week who may be unfamiliar with the way I work and who may have expectations that I won’t deliver on….
I don’t tell you how much money to bet. I don’t work to a ‘points’ system. Nor do I have a staking plan. And I leave it up to you as to whether or not you back a selection each-way….
Why I don’t do what I don’t do is explained here….
The bottom line is this: I put up my selections. It’s up to you how you back them – if indeed you are backing them….
Let’s crack on….
The rule of thumb with the Festival handicaps is that you generally need to be 10+ pounds ahead of the handicapper to come out on top….
And the majority of punters will be looking at lightly-raced and unexposed horses as the most likely to fit that criteria….
And that strategy makes total sense. But more experienced horses have their place too and Nicky Henderson’s CALL ME LORD is a case in point. He’s a big each-way price at 33s for tomorrow’s Coral Cup (2.50)….
He’s really well-handicapped on a mark of 142. It’s the lowest mark he’s run off over hurdles since way back in 2017 when he was a juvenile – and it’s not like he’s been hopelessly out of form…..
His chase campaign went pear-shaped early-doors this term, but when returned to hurdles in January at Kempton he ran a cracker from off the pace in the Lanzarote – a race that’s produced multiple subsequent winners….
Forget his effort at Sandown the time after. The 3-mile trip stretched him and he’ll be much happier back over the intermediate trip tomorrow….
He’s got Cheltenham form. He won the International Hurdle back in 2019 (albeit on the New course) and he definitely handles a big field and all that entails – something that plenty of other horses in tomorrow’s race will need to prove at the first time of asking….
I think he’s a dangerously well-handicapped horse overlooked at a big price simply because he’s got a few more miles on the clock than the horses the market is latching on to….
The 9yo can run a much bigger race than his price suggests and with the bookies paying out on up to 8 places, he’s a standout option for each-way players….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the first 8. Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power & Betfred are paying out 1/5 the first 7. BetVictor, William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes, Betway, Boylesports, Unibet & 888sport are paying out 1/5 the first 6.
FRERO BANBOU ran a really good race in defeat at Sandown last time and can go one better in tomorrow’s Grand Annual (4.50) at the 16s with bet365 & Betfred and the general 14s….
The horse that beat him home at Sandown – Dolos – was incredibly well-handicapped on the day and running in a race he’d won twice previously (and in which he’d finished 2nd on two additional occasions)….
That one of Paul Nicholls was also on the front end of the pace the whole way whilst Frero Banbou was doing all his work from the rear of the field….
The 7yo made up plenty of ground and overhauled horses on the home straight but the winner had got too much on him and couldn’t be cracked….
It was still an exuberant and taking performance that strongly suggests the 7yo can progress again from his current perch of 141 – maybe ridden a little closer to the early pace….
There’s no shortage of options in any of the handicaps we’re looking at this week – we’re dealing with some of the most competitive races of the year. You can make a case for several more but – all things taken together – Frero Banbou is the pick at the prices for me….
Each-way backers take note: bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power & Betfred are paying 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Coral Cup (2.50 @ Cheltenham)….
In the Grand Annual (4.50 @ Cheltenham)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on Day 3 at the Cheltenham Festival….
Until then….
Stay tuned.
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